4 winners =1

4 losers =1

3 winners =4

3 losers =4

2 winners =6 ]]>

How does that go again? It's been a while since I played a 4 team parlay. ]]>

1of 16 =4 tails.

3 of 16 = 3 heads.

3 of 16 = 3 tails.

4 of 16 = 4 heads.

4 of 16 = 4 tails.

6 of 16 = 3 heads or 3 tails. (.375)

]]>coin flip analogy. (6-16)

His average dropped from .411 on May 20th to .367 on September 8th. He may of had a 12 for 52 stretch during that period. (.230)

]]>Re: Games 1 and 2 on home field of lower seed.

This didn't just happen the first 3 years of the LDS. The first 16 years of the LCS (1969 to 1984) had the 2-3 format until the LCS was extended to a best of 7 series in 1985.

]]>Don't forget about Bench beginning to really slow down by that time as well, and playing more third base {which I have to admit, he did pretty well} than behind the plate. Add to that the fact that Cincinnati is a comparatively small-market town to have a team in the Free-Agent Era, and you can see why the Reds have been a generally disappointing franchaise since '80.

]]>-- 41 of 106 World Series (38.5%) were tied 2-2 at some point.

-- from 1969-84, the LCS were best of five, and 10 of 32 (31%) needed a game 5.

-- from 1985-2010, the LCS were best of seven, and 13 out of 50 (26%) were tied 2-2 at some point.

-- 17 of 68 LDS (25%) have gone to a game 5.

-- all best of five series in MLB history (excl 1981): 27 out of 100 had a game 5.

If you flip four coins, the probability of getting exactly two heads is 37.5%. That's very close to the World Series number. As you go back to the earlier rounds, you're probably more likely to get mismatches than in the World Series. So all of that makes sense to me.

But I still think it's very surprising how rare it is to have a game 5 out of 5. If you get a LDS between two teams, one of which has a 70% chance of winning each game, you still have a 26% chance of the series going five games. You wouldn't expect any playoff team to win 70% vs any other playoff team -- 70% is Phillies vs Astros, not Phillies vs Cardinals.

]]>12 of 52 before this year 23%. ]]>

Let's say you create a series that looks really lopsided though -- suppose the team with home-field advantage has a 70% chance of winning a game in their own park and a 60% chance of winning on the road. There should STILL be about a 31% chance of a series like that lasting five games.

]]>