Comments on: 3 Sudden Death LDSs http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: scott-53 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673/comment-page-1#comment-164448 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 11:30:57 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15673#comment-164448 4 team parlay 16 combinations.
4 winners =1
4 losers =1
3 winners =4
3 losers =4
2 winners =6

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By: scott-53 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673/comment-page-1#comment-164417 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 10:38:02 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15673#comment-164417 @28: Screwed that coin flips up pretty good.
How does that go again? It's been a while since I played a 4 team parlay.

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By: scott-53 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673/comment-page-1#comment-164409 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 10:26:56 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15673#comment-164409 Coin flips:1 of 16 =4 heads.
1of 16 =4 tails.
3 of 16 = 3 heads.
3 of 16 = 3 tails.
4 of 16 = 4 heads.
4 of 16 = 4 tails.

6 of 16 = 3 heads or 3 tails. (.375)

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By: scott-53 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673/comment-page-1#comment-164405 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 10:16:13 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15673#comment-164405 @9: Stan Musial's 1948 .376 batting title is almost exactly on your
coin flip analogy. (6-16)

His average dropped from .411 on May 20th to .367 on September 8th. He may of had a 12 for 52 stretch during that period. (.230)

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By: Doug http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673/comment-page-1#comment-164345 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 08:13:01 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15673#comment-164345 @21.

Re: Games 1 and 2 on home field of lower seed.

This didn't just happen the first 3 years of the LDS. The first 16 years of the LCS (1969 to 1984) had the 2-3 format until the LCS was extended to a best of 7 series in 1985.

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By: Frank Clingenpeel http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673/comment-page-1#comment-164138 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 01:08:37 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15673#comment-164138 #20.

Don't forget about Bench beginning to really slow down by that time as well, and playing more third base {which I have to admit, he did pretty well} than behind the plate. Add to that the fact that Cincinnati is a comparatively small-market town to have a team in the Free-Agent Era, and you can see why the Reds have been a generally disappointing franchaise since '80.

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By: scott-53 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673/comment-page-1#comment-164098 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 23:30:47 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15673#comment-164098 @23:Like your original assessment at 38%. Mismatches don't always come in to the winner's circle. The 1954 Indians & the1990 Oakland A's both got swept 4-0 in the World Series.

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By: cloycebox http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673/comment-page-1#comment-163998 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 20:28:40 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15673#comment-163998 Some more numbers to consider:
-- 41 of 106 World Series (38.5%) were tied 2-2 at some point.
-- from 1969-84, the LCS were best of five, and 10 of 32 (31%) needed a game 5.
-- from 1985-2010, the LCS were best of seven, and 13 out of 50 (26%) were tied 2-2 at some point.
-- 17 of 68 LDS (25%) have gone to a game 5.
-- all best of five series in MLB history (excl 1981): 27 out of 100 had a game 5.

If you flip four coins, the probability of getting exactly two heads is 37.5%. That's very close to the World Series number. As you go back to the earlier rounds, you're probably more likely to get mismatches than in the World Series. So all of that makes sense to me.

But I still think it's very surprising how rare it is to have a game 5 out of 5. If you get a LDS between two teams, one of which has a 70% chance of winning each game, you still have a 26% chance of the series going five games. You wouldn't expect any playoff team to win 70% vs any other playoff team -- 70% is Phillies vs Astros, not Phillies vs Cardinals.

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By: scott-53 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673/comment-page-1#comment-163919 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 17:37:43 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15673#comment-163919 @16: 15 of 56 about 27% since 2-2-1 format.
12 of 52 before this year 23%.

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By: cloycebox http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15673/comment-page-1#comment-163903 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 17:15:10 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15673#comment-163903 Doug (16) makes a good point -- I assumed that every playoff series in MLB history had games 1&2 in the ballpark of the team with home field advantage, and games 3&4 in the other team's ballpark. But there are a few historical exceptions to that rule that I could have carved out. Probably wouldn't have changed much.

Let's say you create a series that looks really lopsided though -- suppose the team with home-field advantage has a 70% chance of winning a game in their own park and a 60% chance of winning on the road. There should STILL be about a 31% chance of a series like that lasting five games.

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