Comments on: A Tale of Two IBBs http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15656 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: SocraticGadfly http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15656/comment-page-1#comment-164025 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 21:00:33 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15656#comment-164025 La Russa lost Game 1 in part by not having Rzepczynski ready to face Howard instead of Lohse grooving a junkball for him. He lost Game 3 through this. He almost lost Game 2, IMO, by pulling Carpenter when he did rather than calling for a safety squeeze.

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By: pauley http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15656/comment-page-1#comment-163996 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 20:24:23 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15656#comment-163996 The bad call was LaRussa not pinch hitting for Garcia. There just isn't any reason to try and get another inning out of your starter in that situation.

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15656/comment-page-1#comment-163973 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 19:31:45 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15656#comment-163973 @6, Cheese -- Was that comment misdirected? I have no idea what it means.

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By: Cheese http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15656/comment-page-1#comment-163966 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 19:15:56 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15656#comment-163966 fly juice?

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By: Doug http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15656/comment-page-1#comment-163838 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 15:47:18 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15656#comment-163838 "LaRussa said (I'll paraphrase) that Ruiz has had many big hits against the Cardinals. I'm sure Tony doesn't use a WPA measuring stick, but ... I have no idea what he was referring to."

As you say, LaRussa probably wasn't thinking about WPA. What he was likely thinking about was the homer and the 4-hit game that Ruiz had against St. Louis. Considering Ruiz only started 6 games against the Cards this season, those two events are probably enough for Tony to get the impression (on a gut-feel level) that Ruiz can hurt his team.

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By: Gonzo http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15656/comment-page-1#comment-163812 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 14:44:17 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15656#comment-163812 The IBB wasnt a bad call by LaRussa. The Phils bench is very weak. Especially against righties. The mistake was not lifting Garcia for a righty.

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By: Dukeofflatbush http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15656/comment-page-1#comment-163795 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 14:02:36 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15656#comment-163795 John,

The only way I’ll appreciate an entry like this is if you did all the math in your head.
Seriously, great stuff.
Sometimes I hate it when the game comes down to a series of ‘chess moves’ - where managers kind of go on auto pilot and go with the larger set of outcomes, not the personal history of each player, unorthodox match-ups, hunches, inside knowledge, etc. But it is still great to see things broken down a bit finer, to actually understand the expected value of each move. I still think the game is managed by fear of second guesses. If the manager brings in a right hand pitcher to face a left handed bat (e.g.; Cano is hitting better against lefties this year) - the manager better have a great story for the press if it doesn’t work out. Most times he goes with the expected match up, not the instinctive or the individual’s performance.
But again, great to see the advantages for either move, so armchair managing the playoffs is a bit easier, and I can sound more intelligent when I use your numbers (without citation) at the bar.

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By: Larry R. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15656/comment-page-1#comment-163779 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 13:33:27 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15656#comment-163779 Keep up the great work, JA. These blogs are terrific.

@1

Sickening username.

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By: Melonogaster's Semen http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15656/comment-page-1#comment-163587 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 06:39:21 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15656#comment-163587 The very fact that they are playing to score one run might be reductive due to an increased probability of bunt events. This is obviously because some managers, including Larussa, have yet to embrace the true value of an out to the defensive team.

Nice article, please more like this. The 2 AM posting can only make it better as it commandeers our thoughts at night

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