Comments on: Matt Moore (3 games in the major leagues) will start Game 1 for the Rays http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437/comment-page-1#comment-161274 Sun, 02 Oct 2011 03:38:39 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15437#comment-161274 Moore is as untradeable as any minor leaguer; if the Nationals called and offered Bryce Harper even up, it would be the Rays who hung up first.

Actually, I wonder about this. There would probably be a natural inclination to hold on to their own guy. But the Rays have pitching depth. They could use a big bat. Harper probably won't be a quality major league hitter next season, but by 2013 he should be. Unless the Rays are convinced Moore will be an ace (and he may well be), perhaps this would be a trade to consider.

Of course, the Rays, unconvinced of their financial stability, probably want to stay in win-now mode while they can. So if Moore seems ready to help them now (as he has been so far), use him, and worry about the 2013 offense in 2013.

It does seem like some pitchers are able to shut down teams as soon as they reach the majors. They may burn out quickly, but for a while they can be as good as anyone. Whereas even if Harper is destined for stardom, he may not became a real game-changing hitter for another 3-4 years or more.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437/comment-page-1#comment-161271 Sun, 02 Oct 2011 03:28:44 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15437#comment-161271 Moore is as untradeable as any minor leaguer

That's true now, but it doesn't mean other teams weren't keeping an eye on him, even before they had any thought he might face them in the 2011 postseason. I'm not saying the Rays would have ever considered moving him, but I'm sure other teams are always looking at guys they might be interested in acquiring. And Moore's stock is a lot higher right now than it was just a year ago; he was a very good prospect to begin the season, not a guy on the verge of leading a major league team through the postseason.

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By: Chuck http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437/comment-page-1#comment-161150 Sat, 01 Oct 2011 22:11:15 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15437#comment-161150 You're welcome

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By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437/comment-page-1#comment-161128 Sat, 01 Oct 2011 21:11:51 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15437#comment-161128 Good stuff Chuck, thanks.

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By: Chuck http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437/comment-page-1#comment-161127 Sat, 01 Oct 2011 21:07:01 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15437#comment-161127 "But, I'd guess a lot of that scouting has been while assessing Moore as a potential trade target.."

Moore is as untradeable as any minor leaguer; if the Nationals called and offered Bryce Harper even up, it would be the Rays who hung up first.

"..which may have a slightly different focus than scouting him as an opponent to be faced in the postseason."

Absolutely true, because you're not only scouting a player for what he does on the field, but how that ability would fit into your own organizational needs.

"Also, most of that scouting would have taken place in the minor leagues. So if in the minors he could get more swings on breaking balls in the dirt, get away with hanging more changeups due simply to the change of speeds, it doesn't necessarily tell the Rangers (or whoever) how he'll adjust to major league batter."

Mostly true.

Once it became clear a couple of weeks ago the Rays had a chance to get back in it, Rangers scouts began following Tampa, and there were two ML scouts in the stands watching Moore's first start.

There's not a pitcher in the major leagues who couldn't strike out Josh Hamilton, just like there's not a major league pitcher Hamilton couldn't take deep.

At the ML level, scouts aren't looking at stuff as much as they are at things like patterns, stress levels, etc.

The stuff Hamilton and the rest of the Rangers would want to know is at what point would Moore be most likely to throw a changeup, or is his curve better from the windup or from the stretch, things like that.

It's absolutely to the pitcher's advantage to be facing a team for the first time than for a hitter to be facing him for the first time, which is why Maddon made such a good call on this.

And let's understand something here.

All Moore lacks is major league experience.

As a pitcher; stuff, poise, delivery, mechanics, etc, he's better than David Price.

Right now.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437/comment-page-1#comment-160842 Sat, 01 Oct 2011 04:34:48 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15437#comment-160842 I think Andy and Chuck are both right. Certainly other teams do have a book on Moore and know a lot about what he can do. But, I'd guess a lot of that scouting has been while assessing Moore as a potential trade target, which may have a slightly different focus than scouting him as an opponent to be faced in the postseason. Also, most of that scouting would have taken place in the minor leagues. So if in the minors he could get more swings on breaking balls in the dirt, get away with hanging more changeups due simply to the change of speeds, it doesn't necessarily tell the Rangers (or whoever) how he'll adjust to major league batters.

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By: Chuck http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437/comment-page-1#comment-160832 Sat, 01 Oct 2011 04:04:33 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15437#comment-160832 "There is probably a lack of scouting information on Moore, which helps."

No such thing.

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By: Timothy P. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437/comment-page-1#comment-160812 Sat, 01 Oct 2011 03:09:28 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15437#comment-160812 @10, Mr. Snark - I don't think getting a DUI disqualifies someone from being a genius. And that idiot Marty Brennaman has no proof that LaRussa instructs his guys to throw at peoples heads. Grow up son.

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437/comment-page-1#comment-160803 Sat, 01 Oct 2011 02:49:55 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15437#comment-160803 @35, BJSG: "Philly has an anemic offense"
-- The Phils scored 0.27 R/G above the league average for the year, and were at the league average in OPS+. They were 4 points above average in OBP, the most important single component.

"St. Louis has about league-average pitching."
-- How much wiggle room is in that word, "about"? Their ERA+ was 97, 11th in the NL. Their raw R/G was also worse than league average.

Season run differentials put Philly at an expected 103 wins, the Cards at 88. Do the Cards have a top-heavy rotation that might make their expected postseason pitching performance better than the regular season? They do not; no STL starter reached 110 in ERA+. The Phils have the 3 best SPs in the series.

And because of their stretch drive, the Cards don't have their rotation set optimally. Kyle Lohse starts Game 1, and apparently Carpenter will go on 3 days' rest in Game 2. The Phillies are weaker against LHPs, but the Cards will start no more than 1 LHP in the series.

Can I get a bet down on the Phils at even money?

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By: bluejaysstatsgeek http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15437/comment-page-1#comment-160725 Fri, 30 Sep 2011 23:18:50 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15437#comment-160725 @33, Johnny:

For offense, I used the league run environment scaled by team OPS+ to get offensive potential in runs per game. For runs allowed, I used a weighted average of the ERAs (! - see below) of the pitchers based on my subjective guess of the relative innings pitchers would log in the series. So for each team, I have their opponent-neutral expected runs scored and allowed. To get the runs that Team X would be expected to get against Team Y, I took a weighted average of Team X's expected runs for and Team Y's expected runs allowed. I fed these into the Pythagorean expectation to get a site-neutral win expectation. I adjusted individual game win expectations by adding 2.5% to the home team and subtracting 2.5% from the visiting team and then computed the probability of each possible series result, which I can post, but they are also posted in a thread at Bluebirdbanter.

Philly has an anemic offense and St. Louis has about league-average pitching. I have Philly scoring an expected 3.78 rpg against St. Louis. The Cardinals have an AL-like offense scoring 4.7 rpg but they're facing the best pitching staff in the NL, and I have their expected rpg at about 3.84. That 0.06 run differential is a virtual tie.

On my use of ERA: I eye-balled the ERA, RA and they seemed to correlate well, when I did these calcs today. I was rushing to meet a posting deadline and the eye-ball test was flawed. Looking at them more closely, STL allowed a lot more unearned runs than PHI, 84 to 34, which is about .30 rpg. That is likely big enough to swing it back to PHI as the favourite. Likewise the TBR defense compared to the TEX defense is worth an additional 0.20 rpg advantage to TBR. These defense effects were not factored in.

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