Comments on: Most Homers After 32nd Birthday http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/147 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 22 Dec 2009 21:06:34 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: David in Toledo http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/147/comment-page-1#comment-180 David in Toledo Mon, 06 Aug 2007 21:15:18 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/147#comment-180 Interesting research, Chris, and good point about injury, Andy. Another way to look at this: if they had had the same start as A-rod, there are seven guys who would have passed Hank Aaron (including Hank Aaron, who would have finished with 857). Barry Bonds would have 920 and counting. So, given A-rod's start, he should be able to make 756 easy enough, if he keeps his head on straight and doesn't get injured. Interesting research, Chris, and good point about injury, Andy.

Another way to look at this: if they had had the same start as A-rod, there are seven guys who would have passed Hank Aaron (including Hank Aaron, who would have finished with 857). Barry Bonds would have 920 and counting. So, given A-rod's start, he should be able to make 756 easy enough, if he keeps his head on straight and doesn't get injured.

]]> By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/147/comment-page-1#comment-157 Andy Sun, 05 Aug 2007 00:55:51 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/147#comment-157 That's a nice little piece of info, Chris. To me the biggest issue would seem to be injury. A-rod seems to be the prefect candidate to reach 800 homers. In particular, it's the fact that he's not overmuscular that I see in his favor. It seems like he should be able to maintain his physique just as it is quite easily through age 40. That should help him keep up his bat speed and keep up his homer rate reasonably well. It's mainly just if he gets some injuries that he'll have problems. That's a nice little piece of info, Chris. To me the biggest issue would seem to be injury. A-rod seems to be the prefect candidate to reach 800 homers. In particular, it's the fact that he's not overmuscular that I see in his favor. It seems like he should be able to maintain his physique just as it is quite easily through age 40. That should help him keep up his bat speed and keep up his homer rate reasonably well. It's mainly just if he gets some injuries that he'll have problems.

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