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ShareThisMost Homers After 32nd Birthday
Barely a week after turning 32, Alex Rodriquez hit his 500th homer. Neat trick. That puts him 255 behind Aaron, and 254 behind Bonds, who will almost certainly end up a little higher.
Right now A-Rod's on pace, but how many have hit at least 255 homers after age 32? Well, it's not a perfect science as A-Rod's still in his age 31 season, but let's not get carried away.
Go to Batting Season Finder. The key is in the top yellow bar choose the Find Totals for Matching Seasons or Careers option, look from 1876-2007 (I know no one did it in the 19th century, but humor me), and select ages 32-onward on the bottom of the left margin.
On the right, I'm going to look for guys with 200 or more homers, to get an idea of how many have even come close. Sort by HR, and here's the results.
Only seven guys have ever hit 255 or more homers from age 32 onward. To do that, A-Rod's got to be a better bopper than Reggie Jackson was. In fairness, to A-Rod, he should get another 15 or so homers this year, meaning he'll only need 240, but then again Bonds isn't done either.
Hearing that he only needs 255 from age 32-onward makes it sound easy, and really compared to what he's done I guess it is. But damn, 755 is a mighty high number to get to. Hell, Frank Robinson didn't even get 200 more from that point onward.
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This entry was posted on Saturday, August 4th, 2007 at 6:19 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
August 4th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
That's a nice little piece of info, Chris. To me the biggest issue would seem to be injury. A-rod seems to be the prefect candidate to reach 800 homers. In particular, it's the fact that he's not overmuscular that I see in his favor. It seems like he should be able to maintain his physique just as it is quite easily through age 40. That should help him keep up his bat speed and keep up his homer rate reasonably well. It's mainly just if he gets some injuries that he'll have problems.
August 6th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
Interesting research, Chris, and good point about injury, Andy.
Another way to look at this: if they had had the same start as A-rod, there are seven guys who would have passed Hank Aaron (including Hank Aaron, who would have finished with 857). Barry Bonds would have 920 and counting. So, given A-rod's start, he should be able to make 756 easy enough, if he keeps his head on straight and doesn't get injured.