Comments on: WPA>= .260 In 1st Major League Game http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Kahuna Tuna http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643/comment-page-1#comment-147504 Wed, 07 Sep 2011 04:31:47 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14643#comment-147504 McCovey, Cox, Gibson . . . and Russ Van Atta in 1933 are the only ones to get their 4 hits in just 4 AB.

Van Atta is the only one of these four who was a pitcher. He made his debut for the Yankees in this 16-0 win over the Senators, three weeks before Cecil Travis broke into the Washington lineup.

I'd make the obligatory joke about the Senators, but they won the AL pennant that year.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643/comment-page-1#comment-146970 Tue, 06 Sep 2011 02:43:31 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14643#comment-146970 A question regarding WPA - why do teams start with a 50/50 chance of winning the game?

It's a fair question. First of all, to be used as a stat to evaluate player performance, I think it makes sense to compare players to average. If you assume a team's chance of winning the game is better because its the Yankees vs the Orioles, or because Albert Pujols is up, you're probably right, but in practice you end up with every player's WPA being about 0 because they all performed as they were expected to.

Secondarily, it's far easier to estimate win- or run-expectancy based on all the games that have reached that situation in the past, rather than trying to tweak tiny adjustments based on the exact players involved. How do you make those adjustments anyway? On what do you base your assessment of each player's/team's "true talent" at that moment?

Now, if managers are to assess run- and win-expectancy, as they should (not necessarily looking up stuff online during the game, but they should have an innate sense of the numbers), they should be adjusting them mentally for the situation at hand. Having a runner on 3rd with 1 out in the bottom of the 8th while down by 2 runs is one thing. When the batter is Albert Pujols and the pitcher is Ryan Madson, those general expectancies don't necessarily apply.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643/comment-page-1#comment-146967 Tue, 06 Sep 2011 02:32:51 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14643#comment-146967 I'm surprised at Leyritz's debut...yes, he pinch-hit the game-tying single, but he also made a game-ending throwing error in the next inning.

I remember this game. I was listening to it on the radio while being driven to an end-of-school party. (Well, I remember his hit. I don't remember the error. Maybe I was already checking out the females by then?)

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By: Artie Z http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643/comment-page-1#comment-146837 Mon, 05 Sep 2011 19:52:29 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14643#comment-146837 A question regarding WPA - why do teams start with a 50/50 chance of winning the game?

The Angels (76-64) are at home playing the Mariners (58-81) today with Dan Haren on the mound against Anthony Vasquez. Do the Mariners really have a 50% chance of winning this game when it starts? I understand that it could be difficult to estimate the probability that the Mariners win the game when it starts, but isn't WPA based upon average teams facing each other? Someone has probably already made this criticism before but I just wondered what people's thoughts are about this.

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By: Doug http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643/comment-page-1#comment-146796 Mon, 05 Sep 2011 18:02:46 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14643#comment-146796 Cecil Travis of the Senators is the only player ever to get 5 hits (all singles) in his career debut (a 12-inning game in 1933).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WS1/WS1193305160.shtml

Only 14 players have 4 hits in their debut. Three guys on this list (McCovey, Cox, Gibson) plus Russ Van Atta in 1933 are the only ones to get their 4 hits in just 4 AB.

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By: Pat from Jersey http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643/comment-page-1#comment-146732 Mon, 05 Sep 2011 15:21:26 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14643#comment-146732 I'm surprised at Leyritz's debut...yes, he pinch-hit the game-tying single, but he also made a game-ending throwing error in the next inning.

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By: Richard Chester http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643/comment-page-1#comment-146723 Mon, 05 Sep 2011 15:09:18 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14643#comment-146723 @30

I did a PI search and answered my own question. McDonald has 3 hits and 3 homers. 18 other players have one hit and one homer.

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By: Richard Chester http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643/comment-page-1#comment-146714 Mon, 05 Sep 2011 14:52:25 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14643#comment-146714 @29

Thanks for the update. At least Nieman is the only one to do it in the same game. It would be interesting to see if McDonald has the most HRs for a player whereby all his hits were HRs.

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By: Spindlebrook http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643/comment-page-1#comment-146692 Mon, 05 Sep 2011 14:24:40 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14643#comment-146692 @ 28

Keith McDonald matched Nieman's feat back in 2000. McDonald ended up with only three ML hits, all of them home runs.

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By: Richard Chester http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14643/comment-page-1#comment-146683 Mon, 05 Sep 2011 14:13:50 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14643#comment-146683 @21

If you read my post #4 you'll see that I mentioned that Nieman hit his 2 HRs in his first two at-bats, the only player to do so.

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