Comments on: 8+ Starts Since 2009 With Game Score http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Fireworks http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252/comment-page-1#comment-139799 Tue, 23 Aug 2011 00:09:52 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14252#comment-139799 AJ is so bad that when I saw the post title I forgot to say, "AJ will do well on this list," because I don't associate AJ with doing well.

@ Thomas Court. Agree with you 100%. I was pointing out AJ's poor record with the Yankees a couple days ago. After the Minnesota loss I calculated that not counting AJ's decisions (I didn't look at the Yanks record in games he started), the Yankees were 100 games over .500 in 3 years without his particular record. And even he were a little unlucky somehow in having the pen blow a few of his wins the last couple years while the offense never rescued him from a loss (both of which I sincerely doubt have occurred to give him a better impression for the purpose of this discussion), it takes real talent to be a losing pitcher in his favorable situation.

An ERA of nearly 5 since the beginning of 2010. You can get one of these highly touted prospects from the farm to do that at minimum, and for 40 times less money.

I've actually been rooting for him to get rocked the last couple starts. My willingness to have him look so terrible that there is absolutely no chance that the Yankees put him in a position to fail (his only option, apparently) in the future, and understand that he is a sunk cost and should be a mop up man these last two-plus years until he demonstrates, in low-pressure situations, that he can pitch well and be promoted to a slightly better role is paramount in rooting against him and thus against the Yankees.

I don't care about not making the situation so ugly that his 'confidence' is shattered and he can't possibly be reinserted into the rotation in 2012 or 2013. Sunk cost. We have to pay him. That does not mean we have to continue to utilize him when he is detrimental to the success of the team.

Go Yankees (except for Burnett. You're lucky this is a 'family' blog or I'd say what I really think about you)!

P.S. If you're really observant when you watch Yankees games that Burnett starts you will notice that in his left hand he does not hold a glove, but instead holds a handgun, and that he does not have a baseball cap on his head, but a stocking cap.

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By: Voomo Zanzibar http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252/comment-page-1#comment-139455 Mon, 22 Aug 2011 04:37:50 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14252#comment-139455 Cashman just returned my call.
He understands now.

Put AJ, Feliciano, Marte, and Igawa on waivers.
Big Z clears waivers.
Trade those four for BIg Z. Cubs will gladly do it.

Assign Z to AA Trenton.
If he refuses the assignment, send him home and eat the 18 million.
If he accepts the assignment, use him exclusively as a pinch hitter, send him to charity events four times a week, and tell him that if is behaves that maybe, just maybe he'll get called up in July of 2012.

Either he retires and Yanx save their money, or he reforms and they have a great pitcher.

AJ in the NL Central on a crappy team goes 18-6, 2.86, 241K.

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By: Julian http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252/comment-page-1#comment-139443 Mon, 22 Aug 2011 03:35:20 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14252#comment-139443 Interestingly, Cecil and Harang, the only two pitchers on the list to win any of their starts, each did so in only eight starts.

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By: Liam http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252/comment-page-1#comment-139411 Mon, 22 Aug 2011 01:59:41 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14252#comment-139411 kill A.J

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By: DoubleDiamond http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252/comment-page-1#comment-139406 Mon, 22 Aug 2011 01:48:45 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14252#comment-139406 As soon as I saw "Double Butler's" (Brett Cecil's) name on the list, even though it was at the very bottom, I just knew that one of the games had to be this one:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201006270.shtml

And it was, although his game score was 24.

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By: Voomo Zanzibar http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252/comment-page-1#comment-139372 Sun, 21 Aug 2011 23:50:39 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14252#comment-139372 Burnett for Zambrano.
Solves the problem for both teams.

Cashman I know you are reading this.
If I cant have your job at least utilize one of my ideas now and then.
This one is crazy-fun, and saves you about 17 million.

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By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252/comment-page-1#comment-139359 Sun, 21 Aug 2011 22:22:51 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14252#comment-139359 Doug-

I'm forgetting most of the stats I learned, but I believe you are getting at something called variance. Basically, it is a way of measuring how far individual performances are from the mean/average/median/one-of-those. So, you could have two pitchers who have an average game score of 50. Player A might have a very low variance if all his games score between 40 and 60 while Player B's might be much higher if half his games are between 20-30 and the other half are between 70-80. They still have the same average but got there a very different way. i have no idea how it's calculated and I may not be using the proper term, but I'm pretty sure it is a pretty basic statistic that wouldn't be too hard to calculate, especially if a number like Game Score is used.

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By: Doug http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252/comment-page-1#comment-139326 Sun, 21 Aug 2011 19:29:54 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14252#comment-139326 @2, Zenny.

"Many of those guys are feast or famine types - really good or really bad on different nights."

I've heard it suggested that this is a particular charcteristic of Livan Herandez. So, let's find out. Since 2009, by game score:
- 25 or less: 11 starts
- 26-50: 30 starts
- 51-65: 40 starts (1 CG)
- 66 or more: 10 starts (4 CGs)

So, a bit of symmetry with slight skewing towards better results (51 or higher).

I wonder if this isn't fairly typical of your "average" pitcher? Similar likelihood of a very good or very poor start, and performance in the in-between games distinguishing better pitchers from poorer ones.

Anyone have ideas how to measure tendency towards (or against) consistent performance on a game-by-game basis?

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By: Thomas Court http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252/comment-page-1#comment-139312 Sun, 21 Aug 2011 18:05:32 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14252#comment-139312 @6

I will preface this by saying that I am a Yankee fan.

He should get dropped from the rotation right now. Since joining the Yankees his record is 32-34. Now I am a firm believer that "wins" are a completely misjudged category. King Felix totally deserved the Cy Young last year. In fact, I wish we could go back and retroactively fix some of the previous year's awards to reflect this more sound analysis. I understand that wins and losses are not the best way to judge a pitcher's overall effort.

But as a pitcher, it takes a special effort to pitch for the Yankees the past 3 seasons and manage to have a losing record. You really have to work at it - and AJ has proven himself up for the task. Since arriving in New York, every single meaningful pitching statistic for him has gone south. if you compare them with his three years in Toronto. WHIP, HR/9, SO/9, and ERA+ are all worse on the Yankees than they were with the Blue Jays. He gets more (slightly) run support too! More run support and he manages still to be below .500.

And how about this for a stat: The Yankees actually score more runs in the games Burnett pitches AFTER he has been removed from the game. That certainly may not be his fault - but it illustrates that there simply is not a lot of confidence when he is on the mound.

Three seasons is not a limited sample size. How long do you leave a guy in the rotation when he pitches like this? This is not a Blyleven type - who manages a winning record despite pitching for losing teams. Burnett is the opposite. I think he should be removed from the rotation and traded.

And when he turns his career around pitching for Atlanta, or Detroit, or Minnesota - that will be a nice story for him... But I will think to myself, "But you couldn't do it in New York."

Note - Although I am a Yankee fan, I live in Massachusetts and enjoy not only watching the Red Sox, (when the Yanks are not on) I also enjoy the contributions from the Red Sox fans I have seen on this blog. See? Peace is possible!

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14252/comment-page-1#comment-139304 Sun, 21 Aug 2011 17:24:10 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=14252#comment-139304 Don't think that I'm cowed by Girardi's heated postgame defense of Burnett; I'm still one of his leading detractors (though the swelling mob is starting to drown me out).

But the odds of Burnett winding up "the king of this list by season end" seem quite slim. First of all, as bad as he's been this year, Burnett has only 3 Game Scores of 25 or less out of 26 starts. He needs 3 more to tie for the lead, 4 to be "king." He's only due to get 7 more starts, and if he has a couple more really bad ones, he could get skipped a time or two or even dropped from the rotation.

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