Comments on: Quiz: Leading MLB in Wins for 3 straight years [answered] http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Michael E Sullivan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451/comment-page-1#comment-132168 Sat, 30 Jul 2011 12:33:49 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=13451#comment-132168 CC is putting up a pretty impressive career. I pegged him at about 65% for the hall in the halladay discussion last year. Now I think he's getting closer to 80-85%. One thing I noticed. He's in his 11th year, and already has 47 WAR. When you think about a pitcher who might have his career shortened by some major injury, the natural comparison is Sandy Koufax. Koufax pitched for 12 years, and while his best years were more dominant than anything CC has done, his total WAR is around what CC looks like hitting after 12 years.

I did a PI for pitchers with 45+ WAR over their first 12 seasons, and 27 out of 47 are in the hall, with another 4 not eligible but should be locks based on performance (mussina, clemens, pedro and maddux).

going by 11 seasons, it's 10 out of 21 in the hall, with the 11 out including those same 4 locks, and another 2 guys besides CC who are still pitching and have a shot at the hall (Oswalt and Santana).

The guys who are eligible now and out include perennial baseball reference should have gone/got more serious consideration guys: David Cone, Rick Reuschel and Bret Saberhagen (all three in the hall of merit), and one guy I had no idea was that good, probably because his career fell off a cliff right after this: Steve Rogers.

So, 13 of 14 similar pitchers ended up at least in hall of merit territory, and 10 of 14 in the actual hall. good odds. Also suggests Santana is a pretty good bet if he can return at something like his previous form. Oswalt seems already to be on the downswing, so he's likely to end up outside, and possibly be the new steve rogers.

CC needs another three years like he's been pitching and he should be in, IMO even if he falls off a cliff after that. one or two should be enough with a more normal denoument.

]]>
By: Matthew Cornwell http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451/comment-page-1#comment-131661 Thu, 28 Jul 2011 03:58:23 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=13451#comment-131661 Oops - saw "MLB" and the answer was already posted. Nevermind.

]]>
By: Matthew Cornwell http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451/comment-page-1#comment-131660 Thu, 28 Jul 2011 03:55:55 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=13451#comment-131660 Tom Glavine 1991-1993

]]>
By: Dukeofflatbush http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451/comment-page-1#comment-131600 Wed, 27 Jul 2011 22:11:17 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=13451#comment-131600 Can I sue the Grey Lady infringement? They continue to misquote me!!!

]]>
By: nightfly http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451/comment-page-1#comment-131597 Wed, 27 Jul 2011 21:55:03 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=13451#comment-131597 "Mustachioed Repetition" sounds like a captcha phrase.

]]>
By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451/comment-page-1#comment-131581 Wed, 27 Jul 2011 20:54:58 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=13451#comment-131581 Mustachioed Repetition

(BTW, "Mustachioed" was a NYTimes variety puzzle answer recently.)

]]>
By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451/comment-page-1#comment-131572 Wed, 27 Jul 2011 20:18:04 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=13451#comment-131572 David Bilodeau

]]>
By: David Bilodeau http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451/comment-page-1#comment-131565 Wed, 27 Jul 2011 19:41:20 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=13451#comment-131565 Hal Newhouser

]]>
By: kingturtle http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451/comment-page-1#comment-131563 Wed, 27 Jul 2011 19:40:52 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=13451#comment-131563 a game finished is a game you finish but did not start.

]]>
By: Thomas Court http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/13451/comment-page-1#comment-131556 Wed, 27 Jul 2011 19:26:46 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=13451#comment-131556 Can someone explain what exactly does a pitcher have to do to qualify for a "game finished?"

Cy Young has 511 wins, 749 complete games, but only 84 games finished. I am guessing that coming into the game in relief is a requirement - but should it be?

]]>