Comments on: Cory Snyder vs Roger Clemens

By: mccombe35

mccombe35 — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 23:03:53 +0000

take a look at Frank Thomas vs Nolan Ryan

By: tomepp

tomepp — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 18:15:21 +0000

Johnny, you're absolutely right - you can't just average strikeout rates. Many of Jay's 76% non-K plate appearances came against non-K pitchers (the Jeff Suppans), and likewise many of the 72% non-K plate appearances against Pedro were by disciplined hitters (the Nomar Garciaparras). I was totally wrong in implying that they should be averaged to determine the probable outcome. Still, I think 8 Ks in 8 PAs is an outlier in any case.

By: JohnnyTwisto

JohnnyTwisto — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 03:27:21 +0000

Just to test this, I'm going to look at top strikeout batters and pitchers over the past few seasons, and see how they did head-to-head.

2008: Burnett vs. Cust - 3 K in 6 PA; Lincecum vs. Reynolds - 3 K in 7 PA
2007: Kazmir vs. Cust - 1 K in 3 PA; Peavy vs. Howard - 0 K in 3 PA
2006: Santana vs. Granderson - 2 K in 3 PA; Peavy vs. Dun - 4 K in 6 PA

That's 13 strikeouts in 28 PA (46%). Obviously a very small sample, but it isn't the quickest thing to check, so I'll stop here for now.

By: JohnnyTwisto

JohnnyTwisto — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 03:17:49 +0000

Tomepp, I'm not aware of any studies on the likely outcomes of specific pitcher-batter matchups, or pitcher-types vs. batter-types. But intuitively it makes sense to me that you can't simply average out the strikeout percentages for the most likely outcome. The two probably work together exponentially in some way. A high-K pitcher vs. a high-K batter will probably usually result in a ton of K's.

By: tomepp

tomepp — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 18:40:49 +0000

Now there's a total shocker -- a guy who struck out 100 times in 266 AB versus a pitcher who struck out 251 in 233 2/3 IP, and the outcome was... 8 Ks in 8 AB! Who'da thunk it?

Jay struck out in 23.7% of all his career PA, while Pedro struck out 27.8% of all batters he's faced to date. Still, those percentages would indicate a likelihood of 2 or 3 K's in 8 PA, not 8-for-8.

By: leatherman

leatherman — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 13:30:15 +0000

How about a pitcher owning a hitter over a single season? In 1999, Pedro Martinez faced Jay Buhner 8 times and struck him out 8 times: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/cMQY

Buhner did manage to make contact on five foul balls.

By: Raphy

Raphy — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 01:14:11 +0000

I just took five minutes (alright it was probably more like ten) to look around at a few high-strikeout pitchers and searched to see who they faced the most often with an OBP of .000 .
If PI could ever do a global search on these things, it would be a lot of fun.

By: Andy

Andy — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 00:51:59 +0000

Raphy never ceases to amaze me.

By: cheeseboy10000

cheeseboy10000 — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 00:44:25 +0000

Raphy - I'm wondering how you have enough time on your hands to come up with Durham v Rivera...

By: damthesehigheels

damthesehigheels — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 23:59:15 +0000

i remember this from a blooper video!