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2011 WAR-Stars

Posted by John Autin on July 1, 2011

With most teams at or past the midpoint of the season, and the annual Popularity & Pity Game almost upon us, let's stage a fantasy WAR-Star Game with the league leaders in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) by position, through games of Wednesday, June 29.

For the hitters, we'll take the top 2 at each infield position, plus 6 outfielders (no specific position required), and 2 DHs; the NL DHs will be the top WAR that didn't make the team at a position.

On the pitching side, we're taking 6 starting pitchers and 5 relievers. That's overrepresentation for the relievers, none of whom would make the team on WAR ranking alone; but in their defense, they are at least more suited to warming up on short notice. (And if someone has to get hurt, better a reliever than a starter!)

Any player with at least 3.0 WAR who didn't make the team will be mentioned in a footnote.

The position-player tables are in the order C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, DH.

Enough procedurals; let's get to it!

AL - Position Players

Rk Player WAR/pos Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Alex Avila 3.2 24 DET 66 254 218 28 66 16 3 10 45 27 3 61 1 2 6 6 3 0 .303 .373 .541 .914 *2/D5
2 Matt Wieters 1.7 25 BAL 68 261 241 26 62 13 0 7 33 18 1 43 1 0 1 9 0 0 .257 .310 .398 .709 *2
1 Adrian Gonzalez 4.5 29 BOS 79 356 323 56 115 25 3 16 71 28 8 55 3 0 2 17 1 0 .356 .410 .601 1.011 *3/9
2 Miguel Cabrera 3.9 28 DET 81 345 277 60 93 20 0 17 56 61 14 43 3 0 4 10 1 1 .336 .455 .592 1.047 *3/D
1 Dustin Pedroia 3.2 27 BOS 76 357 297 45 81 16 1 6 34 56 4 45 1 1 2 6 15 2 .273 .388 .394 .782 *4
2 Ben Zobrist 3.1 30 TBR 80 345 301 53 80 27 4 9 40 40 1 63 0 1 3 4 7 1 .266 .349 .472 .821 *49
1 Asdrubal Cabrera 2.9 25 CLE 79 355 324 52 96 21 3 13 47 20 2 56 6 4 1 6 12 1 .296 .348 .500 .848 *6
2 Jhonny Peralta 2.6 29 DET 72 286 262 35 82 14 3 13 47 20 1 47 1 0 3 5 0 2 .313 .360 .538 .898 *6/3
1 Alex Rodriguez 3.2 35 NYY 73 313 274 50 82 18 0 13 51 32 1 61 4 0 3 9 4 1 .299 .377 .507 .884 *5/D
2 Kevin Youkilis 3.0 32 BOS 74 319 260 46 70 21 1 11 55 47 1 61 8 0 4 10 1 0 .269 .392 .485 .876 *5/D
1 Jose Bautista 5.2 30 TOR 73 328 258 61 85 13 1 24 52 68 14 47 2 0 0 3 5 3 .329 .473 .667 1.139 *9/5D
2 Denard Span 3.2 27 MIN 56 255 231 32 68 9 3 2 15 24 0 26 0 0 0 2 4 1 .294 .361 .385 .746 *8/D
3 Curtis Granderson 3.2 30 NYY 78 343 294 70 81 11 7 21 56 40 0 79 4 2 3 7 14 7 .276 .367 .575 .941 *8
4 Jacoby Ellsbury 3.1 27 BOS 79 352 318 55 94 22 0 9 39 26 0 49 5 2 1 5 25 10 .296 .357 .450 .807 *8/D
5 Matthew Joyce 2.9 26 TBR 73 271 240 41 74 19 2 10 38 25 7 53 1 0 5 4 4 0 .308 .369 .529 .898 *97
6 Brett Gardner 2.9 27 NYY 77 267 231 41 64 12 4 4 18 28 0 46 2 5 1 5 17 10 .277 .359 .416 .774 *7/8
1 David Ortiz 2.2 35 BOS 76 311 274 48 84 20 1 17 48 35 3 35 1 0 1 12 1 0 .307 .386 .573 .959 *D/3
2 Victor Martinez 2.0 32 DET 66 268 243 35 80 20 0 6 46 21 3 26 0 0 4 3 0 0 .329 .377 .486 .862 *D2/3

 

NL - Position Players

Rk Player WAR/pos Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Brian McCann 2.2 27 ATL 72 299 264 29 83 14 0 14 47 32 9 42 1 0 2 6 2 1 .314 .388 .527 .914 *2/D
2 Miguel Montero 2.1 27 ARI 71 278 249 37 68 21 0 9 40 24 4 41 4 1 0 6 1 0 .273 .347 .466 .812 *2
1 Prince Fielder 3.2 27 MIL 81 343 281 49 86 19 1 21 69 52 10 44 8 0 2 8 0 0 .306 .426 .605 1.031 *3/D
2 Joey Votto 3.0 27 CIN 81 365 298 54 95 18 2 11 50 62 7 65 4 0 1 11 6 4 .319 .441 .503 .944 *3
1 Rickie Weeks 2.7 28 MIL 80 365 325 57 93 20 2 14 33 31 3 74 5 1 3 5 7 2 .286 .354 .489 .844 *4/D
2 Danny Espinosa 2.0 24 WSN 81 330 286 40 68 12 4 15 48 24 1 72 14 2 4 4 9 2 .238 .323 .465 .788 *4
1 Jose Reyes 4.2 28 NYM 77 370 341 65 119 21 15 3 32 26 7 26 0 1 2 4 30 5 .349 .393 .525 .918 *6
2 Troy Tulowitzki 3.0 26 COL 79 340 307 41 83 18 2 14 50 30 6 29 2 0 1 12 6 2 .270 .338 .479 .817 *6
1 Ryan Roberts 1.9 30 ARI 71 285 247 43 62 13 1 10 33 33 1 49 1 2 2 3 12 5 .251 .339 .433 .772 *54/76
2 Chase Headley 1.7 27 SDP 79 311 268 32 80 22 0 2 29 40 6 61 2 1 0 3 8 2 .299 .394 .403 .797 *5
1 Matt Kemp 5.2 26 LAD 82 342 293 52 97 17 2 22 63 42 10 72 3 0 4 10 22 3 .331 .415 .628 1.043 *8/D
2 Andrew McCutchen 4.6 24 PIT 77 341 289 46 81 16 2 11 40 44 0 59 5 2 1 3 15 5 .280 .383 .464 .847 *8/D
3 Ryan Braun 3.9 27 MIL 80 339 296 57 93 18 3 16 60 38 2 50 3 0 2 4 19 4 .314 .395 .557 .953 *7/D
4 Michael Bourn 3.1 28 HOU 79 351 316 52 91 20 6 1 26 31 2 63 2 1 1 4 34 4 .288 .354 .399 .753 *8
5 Matt Holliday 2.7 31 STL 56 231 196 38 64 15 0 10 40 29 3 36 6 0 0 7 0 1 .327 .429 .556 .985 *7/D
6 Shane Victorino 2.6 30 PHI 64 284 254 50 74 12 8 9 31 22 1 31 4 4 0 1 12 1 .291 .357 .508 .865 *8
1 Gaby Sanchez 2.7 27 FLA 80 345 302 39 90 18 0 13 45 36 3 50 2 1 4 9 1 1 .298 .372 .487 .859 *3/D
2 Carlos Beltran 2.5 34 NYM 78 328 284 42 80 21 2 11 53 40 5 46 2 0 2 7 3 0 .282 .372 .486 .858 *9/D

 

AL - Starting Pitchers

Rk Player WAR Age Tm G GS CG SHO W L W-L% IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+ HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pit Str
1 Jered Weaver 4.4 28 LAA 17 17 3 2 9 4 .692 123.1 87 28 27 28 106 1.97 187 5 476 443 20 2 0 1 1 3 6 6 3 4 0 4 .196 .244 .284 .529 51 1966 1260
2 Justin Verlander 4.2 28 DET 17 17 4 2 10 3 .769 128.2 81 36 34 27 124 2.38 158 11 489 454 16 1 0 3 2 3 6 7 1 1 2 3 .178 .228 .291 .519 46 1962 1292
3 Josh Beckett 3.8 31 BOS 15 15 1 1 6 3 .667 98.0 60 24 24 31 80 2.20 183 6 378 337 10 0 0 6 1 3 8 11 4 0 0 3 .178 .257 .261 .518 43 1491 938
4 Ricky Romero 3.4 26 TOR 16 16 3 1 7 7 .500 111.2 91 37 34 38 96 2.74 146 11 452 406 17 1 2 5 3 0 11 4 4 4 1 4 .224 .298 .352 .651 79 1647 1002
5 James Shields 3.2 29 TBR 17 17 6 3 8 5 .615 128.2 96 38 35 30 127 2.45 146 13 498 458 20 1 1 4 3 3 10 0 2 8 0 1 .210 .263 .343 .605 73 1785 1178
6 Gio Gonzalez 3.2 25 OAK 16 16 0 0 7 5 .583 102.0 80 32 27 46 99 2.38 164 6 425 371 13 1 1 6 1 1 11 9 2 0 1 6 .216 .311 .305 .616 73 1687 1012

 

NL - Starting Pitchers

Rk Player WAR Age Tm G GS CG SHO W L W-L% IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+ HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pit Str
1 Roy Halladay 4.6 34 PHI 17 17 5 0 10 3 .769 127.1 115 35 34 16 123 2.40 159 7 505 478 15 1 1 2 6 3 7 9 4 0 0 1 .241 .267 .320 .587 65 1922 1325
2 Cliff Lee 3.8 32 PHI 17 17 4 4 9 5 .643 122.0 103 37 36 27 119 2.66 144 8 484 450 17 2 0 2 3 2 9 4 3 2 0 0 .229 .274 .329 .603 70 1829 1254
3 Cole Hamels 3.7 27 PHI 16 16 1 0 9 4 .692 112.0 86 31 31 21 108 2.49 153 6 437 406 14 2 2 3 5 2 9 12 5 0 3 3 .212 .255 .300 .555 56 1657 1083
4 Clayton Kershaw 3.5 23 LAD 17 17 3 2 8 3 .727 116.2 88 38 38 32 128 2.93 122 8 459 418 15 0 2 1 6 2 7 2 1 2 0 0 .211 .267 .304 .571 66 1742 1117
5 Jair Jurrjens 3.4 25 ATL 14 14 1 0 10 3 .769 95.2 87 24 22 22 55 2.07 183 5 387 356 11 3 2 2 6 1 5 9 5 1 0 2 .244 .291 .334 .626 77 1391 911
6 Ian Kennedy 3.2 26 ARI 17 17 1 1 8 2 .800 116.2 97 41 39 30 97 3.01 132 10 474 427 26 2 0 7 5 5 9 4 0 1 1 7 .227 .286 .368 .653 82 1795 1190

 

AL - Relief Pitchers

Rk Player WAR Age Tm G GF W L W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+ HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pit Str
1 Aaron Crow 2.0 24 KCR 32 8 2 1 .667 0 38.2 25 7 6 17 39 1.40 276 3 152 134 5 0 2 0 1 0 3 4 1 0 0 5 .187 .278 .291 .569 62 585 350
2 Jim Johnson 1.7 28 BAL 35 3 4 1 .800 0 46.1 43 14 12 8 32 2.33 172 3 187 175 8 2 0 0 3 1 3 1 1 0 0 1 .246 .277 .366 .643 77 636 427
3 David Pauley 1.7 28 SEA 30 9 5 1 .833 0 43.2 27 7 7 11 27 1.44 257 1 164 147 2 0 1 3 2 1 6 3 3 0 0 0 .184 .253 .218 .471 36 557 353
4 Mariano Rivera 1.6 41 NYY 33 27 1 1 .500 21 31.1 26 6 6 4 27 1.72 238 1 118 113 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 1 .230 .254 .301 .555 51 455 326
5 David Robertson 1.6 26 NYY 35 5 1 0 1.000 0 32.1 23 5 4 20 52 1.11 368 0 140 120 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 9 1 0 1 3 .192 .307 .217 .524 46 620 403
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/1/2011.

 

NL - Relief Pitchers

Rk Player WAR Age Tm G GF W L W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+ HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pit Str
1 Jonny Venters 2.2 26 ATL 46 7 4 1 .800 3 51.0 30 10 9 18 54 1.59 239 1 198 172 2 1 5 3 5 0 9 1 1 0 0 3 .174 .264 .215 .479 37 714 437
2 Eric O'Flaherty 1.8 26 ATL 40 4 1 2 .333 0 37.1 30 5 5 11 34 1.21 316 1 151 133 6 1 2 2 4 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 .226 .293 .308 .601 70 597 375
3 Joel Hanrahan 1.7 29 PIT 37 33 0 1 .000 23 37.1 27 6 5 8 32 1.21 312 1 141 133 7 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 1 .203 .248 .278 .526 53 513 335
4 Mike Adams 1.6 32 SDP 36 4 3 1 .750 1 36.1 19 6 5 5 40 1.24 286 2 133 127 8 0 1 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 .150 .180 .260 .440 29 524 361
5 Tyler Clippard 1.6 26 WSN 36 4 1 0 1.000 0 45.0 25 10 10 15 57 2.00 192 7 168 151 5 0 1 0 1 1 3 1 2 0 0 0 .166 .240 .338 .577 63 681 452
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/1/2011.

Notes:

-- Players with at least 3.0 WAR who did not make the teams: Kyle Lohse, 3.1; Anibal Sanchez, Michael Pineda and Trevor Cahill, 3.0.

-- There's only one actual "closer" for each team. I feel no need to justify this decision, but if you insist, here's an easy one: If there is a 9th-inning save situation and we want someone who's used to doing that job, could we ask for better choices than Hanrahan, the only closer who has yet to blow a save this year, and Mariano, the greatest closer in history?

-- I justify taking Carlos Beltran as a 2nd NL DH on the grounds that (a) he's the top-WAR-rated RF in the NL and (b) he has a higher offensive WAR than the AL's #1 DH, David Ortiz. I justify Victor Martinez as a 2nd AL DH on the grounds that he gives us an emergency catcher and a switch-hitting bat off the bench. The fact that they are a Met and a Tiger, respectively, is just gravy. 🙂

-- I'm pleased to see that we got all the league leaders in the major hitting categories. In that regard, there is at least one omission on the pitching side....

-- I mean no slight towards CC Sabathia, who got his MLB-high 11th win Thursday; he just didn't make the WAR cut. If I ran the numbers tomorrow, maybe he would, after a dominant 13-K performance. CC can apply the extra rest towards October, when he's likely to be a very busy man.

OK, those are my 2011 WAR-Star Teams. Let's hear your thoughts! For starters, who wins this contest?

This entry was posted on Friday, July 1st, 2011 at 1:38 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

106 Responses to “2011 WAR-Stars”

  1. John Autin Says:

    @99, Dean -- For one thing, if you're looking at the up-to-date WAR numbers, remember that I posted this before Sabathia's most recent start (7.2 IP, no runs, 13 Ks).

    Secondly, as I understand it, the main difference between the WAR formulas used by B-R and by FanGraphs is the expected performance of a replacement player. Since Sabathia has a 32% edge in innings, while Beckett has a big edge in ERA, a small difference in the replacement-player value would be magnified in their respective WAR.

  2. John Autin Says:

    But Dean @99 also makes a good point: I have assumed that most people who know about WAR know that there are "competing" formulas. Perhaps I should state explicitly when I am using B-R's WAR formula. Any suggestions for an appropriate shorthand term? "WAR-BR"?

  3. Mustachioed Repetition Says:

    Some people call them fWAR (for Fangraphs) and, I think, rWAR, for Rally, one of the noms de plume of Sean Smith. I think bWAR (for baseball-ref) would be better understood. I think I've probably called it B-R WAR when trying to make a distinction.

    And actually, I think the bigger difference in re pitchers' WAR is how they try to remove the effect of fielding from pitcher performance. B-R looks at total runs allowed, and makes an adjustment based on its assessment of team defense. FG just looks at the pitcher's stats which are unaffected by fielding (K, BB, HR). I prefer B-R's version, though both have problems. It looks like CC's DIPS numbers are a little better than Beckett's, plus he has the big IP advantage.

  4. Mustachioed Repetition Says:

    Neil/85, yeah, I think I've been hanging out here since the blog started up.

  5. Mustachioed Repetition Says:

    I don't think there's generally a need to identify which WAR you are using, since this is B-R. If it's not specified, people should assume it's the one here. But there's certainly no reason why we can't also refer to FG numbers. It can be interesting sometimes to try hashing out why they might have notable differences for certain players.

  6. [...] 2011 WAR-Stars (Baseball-Reference). Chase Headley and Mike Adams have been pretty good this year, but you knew that. [...]