Comments on: How often does neither starting pitcher get a decision? http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: DavidRF http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514/comment-page-1#comment-103205 Fri, 01 Apr 2011 21:39:59 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10514#comment-103205 Yeah, it does seem like the "double decision case" is a bit high. Last year, of the 4860 games started by starting pitchers, they got decisions 71.8% of the time (1736 W, 1753 L). I guess I wouldn't have expected such a large fraction to be double-decision games but I guess it makes sense.

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By: Evil Squirrel http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514/comment-page-1#comment-103202 Fri, 01 Apr 2011 21:33:03 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10514#comment-103202 Just out of curiosity, I checked the numbers for Opening Day games. To get a little more data, I went back to 2006 for 5 seasons'-worth of data. There have been 23 Opening Day games in which both starters got no-decisions. There have been 7 games in which one starter got a no-decision. There have been 45 games in which both starters got a decision.

That's 75 total games (which makes sense since there are 30 teams, meaning 15 Opening Day games per year, times 5 years.)

Just out of curiosity, how did you handle the 2008 season? Atlanta opened with that bizarre one game series at Washington, then those two teams went on to play the Pirates and Phillies respectively on the true "Opening Day". Seems to me you would almost have to count 16 games as "openers" that year given that quirk, or just 14 if you struck the two games where the Braves and Nats were actually playing their second game of the season....

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By: Michael E Sullivan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514/comment-page-1#comment-103197 Fri, 01 Apr 2011 20:58:36 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10514#comment-103197 my first thought was that it's absolutely extraordinary that one of each isn't much more common. Wow, I guess a really high percentage of games have a decision. Except, why are double no-decisions more common as well?

...

...

And then I realized that these events aren't exactly independent. In fact, they are very very highly correlated.

Yet another lesson in intuitive statistics.

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By: ART B http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514/comment-page-1#comment-103189 Fri, 01 Apr 2011 19:52:47 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10514#comment-103189 Yawn

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By: Tmckelv http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514/comment-page-1#comment-103188 Fri, 01 Apr 2011 19:49:59 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10514#comment-103188 I would guess Opening Day has a higher % of double no-decisions (30% for Opening Day vs 23% overall) for a couple reasons (purely speculative).
1) because I would also guess starting pitchers are going to pitch less innings during their first few starts than later in the season - and less innings = more no decisions
2) Opening Day typically has the "Ace" for both teams which could result in more pitching duels which again could result in more no decisions.

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By: oneblankspace http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514/comment-page-1#comment-103151 Fri, 01 Apr 2011 16:34:35 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10514#comment-103151 And extra inning games are likely to be double-NDs, especially now.

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By: Peter http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514/comment-page-1#comment-103146 Fri, 01 Apr 2011 16:21:00 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10514#comment-103146 Seems to make sense that the percentage of double no-decisions would decrease in years with a higher number of complete games. The longer a starter goes, the more likely he'll end up with a decision.

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By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514/comment-page-1#comment-103135 Fri, 01 Apr 2011 15:03:12 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10514#comment-103135 Laugh, thanks Jeff, I fixed that.

I was talking to my wife last night just as a finished the post and must have forgotten to actually type that in.

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By: Jeff http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514/comment-page-1#comment-103134 Fri, 01 Apr 2011 15:00:05 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10514#comment-103134 and??

9.1% of games with one of each?

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By: Tom Engle http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514/comment-page-1#comment-103133 Fri, 01 Apr 2011 14:59:06 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10514#comment-103133 Interesting. Anyone know what the historical pattern if for no-decisions?

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