Posted by BaseballHQ on March 30, 2011
What follows are two pieces of sample fantasy advice from Baseball HQ, just like readers would receive during the course of their BHQ subscription. Get a competitive advantage in your league by subscribing today!
Nick Richards: Esmil Rogers was named the Rockies' 5th starter, and you might think 'who cares?' given that he had a 6.13 ERA and 1.667 WHIP last year. But look deeper and you see part of the cause of those terrible numbers was a batting average on balls in play (BAbip) of .390 (!). That's such an outlier of a number, you can expect it to return to normal levels. Given that Rogers had a SO/9 of 8.3 (excellent) and a BB/9 of 3.3 (fine), Rogers has skill. Take away some of that bad luck from last year where hits that should have been outs became part of his damaging WHIP instead, and you might have a halfway serviceable 5th starter in 2011. It helps to look deeper than the surface stats to see where those surface stats came from.
Josh Paley: One of the most common questions that we see on a forum is about pricing an injured player for an upcoming season. Threads that ensue seem to follow the following thinking:
- What is the value of the player for this year?
- What do we expect the player to be worth in subsequent years?
So, we look at skills and the player's injury history and the nature of the injury and so on, but we miss a really important item:
A player can have value even he never produces stats for your team if you can trade him.
Consider Chase Utley as a case study. If you have a league like NFBC, the book price is probably about right and there is considerable downside because of his injury. However, in a league that has trades, you could acquire Utley at an attractive keeper price with the specific intent of trading him to a rebuilding owner. Because it may be hard to predict what Utley's condition will be a year from now, it may not be that hard to say, "He's a $25 second baseman" to another owner. Who's to argue? It's all about that owner's perception.
So, if you can acquire Utley for $10 or less this year, you may have a high likelihood of flipping him for a $25 non-keeper for this year.