Comments on: Home run winning percentage http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Opening Day Links and Open Thread | Ducksnorts http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416/comment-page-1#comment-102896 Thu, 31 Mar 2011 14:42:43 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10416#comment-102896 [...] Home run winning percentage (Baseball-Reference). Steve Finley’s team won 74% of games in which he homered. Nice. [...]

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416/comment-page-1#comment-102777 Thu, 31 Mar 2011 04:57:20 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10416#comment-102777 if you correlate the average Win Probability Added, wouldn't it produce a cool list of whos homers have the biggest impact in games their teams win?

This would be an interesting list. I've run a few such searches in the past (I don't know how effective the site's search function is at finding them). One thing I recall is that there didn't seem to be too much difference in the average WPA of HR among different players, e.g. Alex Rodriguez was about the same as Clutch God David Ortiz. I don't think we mere mortals can get those numbers except by searching one player at a time, but perhaps Sean Forman has the power to say whose HR averaged the most WPA (among players with a lot of them).

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By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416/comment-page-1#comment-102576 Wed, 30 Mar 2011 15:01:11 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10416#comment-102576 JA-

To your last post first, I realize that I may have been operating under a false assumption for all of the reasons you offered (and possibly more). It was more of just a thought, one that I couldn't possibly verify and probably could not be verified without exhaustive research, even if it was true. Thanks for speculating...

To your first post, that makes sense. I just wanted to know what to make of the data. Was that Teixeria game a home game against the Sox? If so, I think I was there...

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416/comment-page-1#comment-102495 Wed, 30 Mar 2011 04:16:58 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10416#comment-102495 BSK @ 9 -- Interesting thoughts ... with which I will now quibble.

1. Jeter has averaged 16 HRs per season for his career, so I wouldn't go so far as to say he's "not a home run hitter." Of course, he's not a slugger, either. He's a medium-power guy.

2. You speculated that, "if Jeter hits a HR, I would assume it likely that one or more teammates, who are more prototypical power hitters, also hit a HR in the game. Which means his team likely had a better overall offensive game. Which means they were more likely to win."

This could be interpreted a couple of ways. One is, you're assuming that, if Jeter (a non-slugger) hit a HR, then the pitcher was more HR-prone than average on that day, and thus his teammates were more likely to also hit at least one HR.

If that's what you're saying, I'm not sure that it's a valid assumption. There are just so very many factors that go into any one batter homering off a given pitcher in a given game: Is he a mistake hitter? Is he a guess hitter? Does he have an advantage against this pitcher that his teammates might not share? In my anecdotal observation, Jeter tends to HR more off "outside" pitches and "inside" pitches, but not so much pitches right over the plate; how does this compare to the multitude of teammates he's had over the years? It's just not clear to me that we can assume that a HR hit by this particular medium-power guy increases the likelihood that a teammate also homers.

I can toss off a lot of numbers, but I don't know how to massage them to find out what we're after.

The simplest fact is that the Yankees hit at least 1 HR in a great majority of their games -- about 71% during Jeter's career (1,719 of 2,248). They had 884 one-HR games, 875 multi-HR games, and 709 no-HR games).

But without doing a whole lot of P-I searches and Excel work, I can't see how to estimate whether a Jeter HR meant a teammate HR was more likley.

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416/comment-page-1#comment-102491 Wed, 30 Mar 2011 03:19:59 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10416#comment-102491 BSK -- Actually, I have Bautista down for 54 HRs, not 54 games with a HR. The percentages were expressed as (HRs in games with negative WPA) as a percentage of (Total HRs).

I was going for a theme of "having a HR in a game doesn't always mean you had a positive offensive effect on the game overall," then looking at the raw-number leaders in such HRs, and finally expressing those HRs as a percentage of those players' total HRs. What really jumped out at me was that 6 of Posey's 18 HRs came in games wherein he had a negative WPA.

The other thing that I noticed was that one of Mark Teixeira's negative-WPA games was a 2-HR game, in which he also walked and scored a 3rd run, but wound up with a -0.042 WPA. Both HRs came after the Yanks had fallen behind by 10-1; the team hit 5 HRs from that point on, but still lost, 10-8. In WPA terms, Teix's most important AB was his first, when the game was scoreless and he hit into a DP to end the 1st inning.

(BTW, I should have emphasized that I figured those percentages only for the raw-number leaders; for all I know, someone might have hit 4 HRs on the season, all in negative-WPA games.)

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By: DoubleDiamond http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416/comment-page-1#comment-102459 Wed, 30 Mar 2011 01:00:55 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10416#comment-102459 Two guys from the 2008 Phillies postseason roster on that bottom list! (Stairs and Jenkins.)

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By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416/comment-page-1#comment-102374 Tue, 29 Mar 2011 18:26:13 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10416#comment-102374 JA-

I count 9 multi-HR games, none of which had a negative WPA. I'm not sure if that changes anything or if I'm misunderstanding. Does a multi-HR game count as two HR-games?

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By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416/comment-page-1#comment-102373 Tue, 29 Mar 2011 18:18:56 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10416#comment-102373 JA-

I'm sure I could double-check, but I'd probably miss something. You have Bautista down for 54 games with a HR (by using 54 in the denominator). I believe he hit 54 HRs last year. But didn't he have at least one multi-HR game? Wouldn't that mean fewer games with a HR? And is it possible one of his negative-WPA games was a multi-HR game?

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By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416/comment-page-1#comment-102372 Tue, 29 Mar 2011 18:15:56 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10416#comment-102372 This is more logical than analytical, but as a non-HR hitter, if Jeter hits a HR, I would assume it likely that one or more teammates, who are more prototypical power hitters, also hit a HR in the game. Which means his team likely had a better overall offensive game. Which means they were more likely to win.

I guess it is a bit of a chicken or an egg thing, and of course, it may be based on an entirely false premise. I guess I'd be curious to see numbers on this, if someone can figure out how to do it. I don't mean to pick on Jeter (there may very well be even less powerful hitters on this list than he), but he seems to be the topic of discussion and is one I'm obviously very familiar with.

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10416/comment-page-1#comment-102335 Tue, 29 Mar 2011 16:22:23 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=10416#comment-102335 Just for fun, I used the Play Index to find players from last year with the most games in which they hit a HR but still had a negative WPA.

I expect the leaders in this category to reflect, among other things:
-- The overall HR leaders.
-- Those whose offensive contributions were most concentrated in hitting HRs.

But see if you can guess which name on the list really surprised me:

9 -- Jose Bautista
7 -- Dan Uggla
6 -- Mark Teixeira, Buster Posey, Paul Konerko, Aaron Hill, Nelson Cruz.

Re-ordering the list based on pct. of total HRs that came in games with negative WPA (from lowest to highest):
-- 15.4%, Konerko (6 of 39)
-- 16.7%, Bautista (9 of 54)
-- 21.2%, Uggla and Teixeira (7 of 33)
-- 23.1%, Hill (6 of 26)
-- 27.3%, Cruz (6 of 22)
-- 33.3%, Posey (6 of 18)

One-third of Posey's HRs came in games wherein he had a negative WPA.

On the other hand, the Giants won all 6 games.

So what does it all mean? Probably nothing. But the next time I hear a TV announcer say that the Knights are on a 6-game win streak sparked by Hobbs, who has gone 9 for 26 with 6 HRs and 10 RBI, I'll at least consider the possibility that the team won more in spite of him than because of him.

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