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Bloops: The Hall of (Peak-Weighted) WAR

Posted by Neil Paine on March 18, 2011

Here's a cool link from Adam Darowski:

Hall of wWAR: The Hall of Fame Re-Populated by Peak-Weighted WAR

It is exactly what it sounds like -- he took our Wins Above Replacement stat, peak-adjusted it by combining regular WAR with "Wins Above Excellence" & "Wins Above MVP", and then repopulated the Hall of Fame using that weighted metric. Here were the members of his Hall:

Aaron, Hank Dawson, Andre Kelly, King Robinson, Jackie
Alexander, Pete Delahanty, Ed Killebrew, Harmon Rose, Pete
Allen, Dick Dickey, Bill King, Silver Rusie, Amos
Alomar, Roberto DiMaggio, Joe Koosman, Jerry Ruth, Babe
Anson, Cap Drysdale, Don Koufax, Sandy Ryan, Nolan
Appier, Kevin Eckersley, Dennis Lajoie, Nap Saberhagen, Bret
Appling, Luke Evans, Darrell Larkin, Barry Sandberg, Ryne
Ashburn, Richie Evans, Dwight Lyons, Ted Santo, Ron
Bagwell, Jeff Ewing, Buck Magee, Sherry Schmidt, Mike
Baker, Home Run Faber, Red Mantle, Mickey Seaver, Tom
Bando, Sal Feller, Bob Marichal, Juan Simmons, Al
Banks, Ernie Finley, Chuck Martinez, Edgar Simmons, Ted
Bell, Buddy Fisk, Carlton Mathews, Eddie Sisler, George
Bench, Johnny Flick, Elmer Mathewson, Christy Smith, Ozzie
Berra, Yogi Ford, Whitey Mays, Willie Smith, Reggie
Blyleven, Bert Foxx, Jimmie McCormick, Jim Snider, Duke
Boggs, Wade Freehan, Bill McCovey, Willie Spahn, Warren
Bonds, Bobby Frisch, Frankie McGinnity, Joe Speaker, Tris
Boudreau, Lou Galvin, Pud McGraw, John Stargell, Willie
Boyer, Ken Gehrig, Lou McGwire, Mark Stieb, Dave
Bresnahan, Roger Gehringer, Charlie McPhee, Bid Stovey, Harry
Brett, George Gibson, Bob Medwick, Joe Sutton, Don
Brouthers, Dan Glasscock, Jack Minoso, Minnie Tanana, Frank
Brown, Kevin Gordon, Joe Mize, Johnny Tenace, Gene
Brown, Mordecai Gore, George Molitor, Paul Terry, Bill
Buffinton, Charlie Goslin, Goose Morgan, Joe Tiant, Luis
Bunning, Jim Gossage, Rich Munson, Thurman Torre, Joe
Burkett, Jesse Greenberg, Hank Murphy, Dale Trammell, Alan
Campanella, Roy Grich, Bobby Murray, Eddie Vance, Dazzy
Carew, Rod Grove, Lefty Musial, Stan Vaughan, Arky
Carlton, Steve Gwynn, Tony Nettles, Graig Ventura, Robin
Carter, Gary Hack, Stan Newhouser, Hal Waddell, Rube
Cedeno, Cesar Hamilton, Billy Nichols, Kid Wagner, Honus
Cey, Ron Hartnett, Gabby Niekro, Phil Walker, Larry
Childs, Cupid Heilmann, Harry Olerud, John Wallace, Bobby
Cicotte, Eddie Henderson, Rickey O'Rourke, Jim Walsh, Ed
Clark, Will Herman, Billy Ott, Mel Waner, Paul
Clarke, Fred Hernandez, Keith Palmeiro, Rafael Ward, Monte
Clarkson, John Hershiser, Orel Palmer, Jim Whitaker, Lou
Clemente, Roberto Hornsby, Rogers Perry, Gaylord White, Deacon
Cobb, Ty Hubbell, Carl Pierce, Billy Wilhelm, Hoyt
Cochrane, Mickey Jackson, Joe Plank, Eddie Williams, Ted
Collins, Eddie Jackson, Larry Porter, Darrell Willis, Vic
Collins, Jimmy Jackson, Reggie Radbourn, Charles Winfield, Dave
Cone, David Jenkins, Fergie Raines, Tim Wood, Wilbur
Connor, Roger Jennings, Hughie Randolph, Willie Wynn, Early
Coveleski, Stan John, Tommy Reese, Pee Wee Wynn, Jim
Crawford, Sam Johnson, Walter Reuschel, Rick Yastrzemski, Carl
Cronin, Joe Kaline, Al Ripken, Cal Young, Cy
Dahlen, Bill Keefe, Tim Roberts, Robin Yount, Robin
Davis, George Keeler, Willie Robinson, Brooks
Davis, Willie Kelley, Joe Robinson, Frank

This entry was posted on Friday, March 18th, 2011 at 11:03 am and is filed under Bloops, Hall of Fame, WAR. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

108 Responses to “Bloops: The Hall of (Peak-Weighted) WAR”

  1. @100 Adam,

    You wouldn't have to include J. Clark because he only had a 68.5 or Jose Cruz with a 67.5 unless of coarse you wanted to lower your baseline to 67.

    I can't see the logic in evening out the positions, What would happen if 2 or 3 first ballot HOF left fielders become eligible, you wouldn't be able to include them? There was also more better players at lf, rf and 1b so you can't really get around that. I would just set a baseline and make small adjustment here and there, Catchers, 19th century players etc.

    I wouldn't worry about coming up with the same number of players as the HOF, just come up with your own number. The HOF are always going to have players that don't fit evenly into a baseline number because of things like the Negro leagues, Monte Irvin & Larry Doby, and WW2 or Korean WAR credit like Rizzuto, Doerr, Pesky, Slaughter, Ford or Newcombe.

  2. The Hall of Fame is too difficult to measure in this way. Baseball has been so significantly different from its beginnings to the present that stats are all very, very relative. Consider that we have six distinct eras that all have a very different appearance
    1 - 1875-1900 - Pre-institutional
    2 - 1901-1920 - Organized Leagues begin/Deadball era
    3 - 1921-1942 - Early modern era
    4 - 1943-1968 - WWII/Post-war era
    5 - 1969-1993 - Divisional Ball
    6 - 1994 - Present - Multi-divisional

  3. Guys, I wan t give a huge thanks for all the comments. I'm thinking hard about this, particularly the positions, WAE & WAM values, etc.

    I'm going to continue commenting about where the Hall of wWAR goes next. So, keep an eye out for that. Your feedback is greatly appreciated.

  4. Adam,

    Overall I really like the idea of a WWAR stat, I think career WAR by itself is kind of limited and doesn't tell the whole story. I also like that you including all of those player's WARe & WARm in one convenient spot.

    Any HOF is going to be kind of relative to what baseline you set for admittance and how many players you want to admit. You could set the baseline at 65 WWAR and you would get a certain look, 70 WWAR and you would get a different look, 75 WWAR and another etc.

    I was checking to see who had the most WWAR and wasn't in the HOF and it was Santo (110.2 WWAR) which is not surprising. It's just a joke he's not in the HOF.

    This would be the top 20 most eligible players not in the HOF according to WWAR:

    1-Santo-110.2
    2-Dahlen-103.4
    3-Allen-98.4
    4-Edgar-98.1
    5-Trammell-96.8
    6-Larkin-96.2
    7-Walker-95
    8-Wynn-94.9
    9-K. Brown-94.7
    10-Bando-92.5
    11-Reuschel-91.5
    12-McGwire-90.9
    13-Whitaker-90.7
    14-Raines-88.3
    15-Palmeiro-88.1
    16-K. Hernandez-87.2
    17-R. Smith-84.6
    18-K. Boyer-84.3
    19-Tiant-83.8
    20-Nettles-83.4
    21-Cone-81.6
    22-Olerud-81.3
    23-Bell-81.3
    24-Magee-81.1
    25-Bo Bonds-80.6

    I might have missed someone but realistically all 25 should be solid HOF. But the HOF is dysfunctional so that's why they weren't elected.

  5. You missed an important one. :) Jeff Bagwell at #1.

    I have:

    Jeff Bagwell 1B 79.9 38.7 9.7 128.3
    Jim McCormick P 64.7 36.9 18.3 119.9
    Silver King P 53.8 36.2 24.2 114.2
    Charlie Buffinton P 56.1 36.5 20.5 113.1
    Ron Santo 3B 66.4 33.7 10.1 110.2
    Pete Rose LF 75.3 30.2 4.4 109.9
    Joe Jackson LF 62.9 34.0 11.5 108.4
    Bill Dahlen SS 75.9 25.1 2.4 103.4
    Dick Allen 1B 61.2 28.8 8.2 98.2
    Edgar Martinez DH 67.2 28.6 2.3 98.1
    Alan Trammell SS 66.9 26.1 3.8 96.8
    Bobby Grich 2B 67.6 26.4 2.7 96.7
    Barry Larkin SS 68.9 25.7 1.6 96.2
    Larry Walker RF 67.3 23.3 4.4 95.0
    Jim Wynn CF 59.8 28.3 6.8 94.9
    Kevin Brown P 64.8 25.1 4.8 94.7
    Sal Bando 3B 60.6 27.2 4.7 92.5
    Rick Reuschel P 66.3 22.5 2.7 91.5
    Mark McGwire 1B 63.1 25.3 2.5 90.9
    Lou Whitaker 2B 69.7 19.6 1.4 90.7
    Tim Raines LF 64.6 21.4 2.3 88.3
    Rafael Palmeiro 1B 66.0 20.5 1.6 88.1
    Keith Hernandez 1B 61.0 23.7 2.5 87.2
    Reggie Smith RF 63.4 20.9 0.3 84.6
    Ken Boyer 3B 58.4 23.7 2.2 84.3

  6. Wow, Jeff Bagwell! That must have been a freudian slip because I kind of forgot he wasn't elected last year. Probably in my sub-conscience I assumed he was elected on the first try.

    I left off the 19th century pitchers on purpose because that can be kind of tricky and I'm not really qualified to pass judgement on the validity of their candidacy.

    I should have remembered Rose & Jackson but I think that was another freudian sub-conscience slip.

    Bobby Grich is a big miss by me because I've been a big proponent of his HOF candidacy for years.

    I never heard of Bill Dahlen before I started reading about Win Shares & WAR and so forth but he was an odd omission by the HOF in my opinion. When he retired in 1911 he was 11th all time in career hits. As late as 1990 he was ranked 7th all time in hits by a short stop. The stats say overhelmingly that he was a great fielding short stop so I don't really understand why he was so underrated. Maybe his .272 batting average had something to do with that.

  7. Adam, thanks so much for sharing, and thanks a bunch for staying a part of the discussion here. It was great to have you!

  8. Hey guys... I posted the first of what could be a few questions about adjustments up at Beyond the Box Score. Would love to see what you guys think about this one (counting pitchers' hitting value and position players' pitching value).

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/3/28/2076257/adjusting-the-hall-of-wwar-pitchers-batting-value