Comments on: Worst K/BB ratios for 20-game winners http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1001 This and that about baseball stats. Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:57:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: TheGoof http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1001/comment-page-1#comment-5906 TheGoof Fri, 23 Jan 2009 17:15:33 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=1001#comment-5906 Both of those lists are great, gerry. How about this one? First thing I noticed about the original report was the low OPS+ on those guys. Some had ways of countering the high walks or lack of strikeouts. But these guys let runners on AND let runs score (which is not the same thing, as some would suggest). http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/pmCu Both of those lists are great, gerry.

How about this one? First thing I noticed about the original report was the low OPS+ on those guys. Some had ways of countering the high walks or lack of strikeouts. But these guys let runners on AND let runs score (which is not the same thing, as some would suggest). http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/pmCu

]]> By: gerry http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1001/comment-page-1#comment-5902 gerry Fri, 23 Jan 2009 01:20:57 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=1001#comment-5902 Thanks, Andy. So, compare your list of 22 worst K/BB ratios for a 20-game winner, last 40 years, to the list of 22 worst ERA+ numbers for a 20-game winner, last 40 years: K/BB: Mike Torrez, Joe Niekro, Mel Stottlemyre, Ed Figueroa, Mike Cuellar, Ron Bryant, Ross Grimsley, Clyde Wright, Richard Dotson, Tom Glavine, Joaquin Andujar, Bob Forsch, Tommy John, Jim Palmer x 2, Paul Splittorff, J R Richard, Claude Osteen, Russ Ortiz, Steve Stone, Andy Messersmith, Vida Blue. ERA+: Stan Bahnsen, Joe Niekro, Steve Carlton, Paul Splittorff, Jack Morris, Jim Merritt, Joaquin Andujar x 2, Mike Cuellar, Wilbur Wood, John Burkett, Tom Browning, Catfish Hunter, Dennis Leonard, Bill Gullickson, Andy Messersmith, Vida Blue, Rick Helling, Ron Bryant, Bill Singer, Jim Lieber. Which list is less impressive? Thanks, Andy. So, compare your list of 22 worst K/BB ratios for a 20-game winner, last 40 years, to the list of 22 worst ERA+ numbers for a 20-game winner, last 40 years:

K/BB: Mike Torrez, Joe Niekro, Mel Stottlemyre, Ed Figueroa, Mike Cuellar, Ron Bryant, Ross Grimsley, Clyde Wright, Richard Dotson, Tom Glavine, Joaquin Andujar, Bob Forsch, Tommy John, Jim Palmer x 2, Paul Splittorff, J R Richard, Claude Osteen, Russ Ortiz, Steve Stone, Andy Messersmith, Vida Blue.

ERA+: Stan Bahnsen, Joe Niekro, Steve Carlton, Paul Splittorff, Jack Morris, Jim Merritt, Joaquin Andujar x 2, Mike Cuellar, Wilbur Wood, John Burkett, Tom Browning, Catfish Hunter, Dennis Leonard, Bill Gullickson, Andy Messersmith, Vida Blue, Rick Helling, Ron Bryant, Bill Singer, Jim Lieber.

Which list is less impressive?

]]> By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1001/comment-page-1#comment-5881 Andy Thu, 22 Jan 2009 14:10:50 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=1001#comment-5881 I must admit that Johnny sort of twisted my post into something that it wasn't. I wasn't trying to identify the flukiest 20-game winners. I picked K/BB ratio because that number tends to be a decent indicator of long-term success for most pitchers and most eras, so the guys with the lowest ratios I guessed would have had the "least impressive" careers, which I think I achieved, at least approximately. Here is the list of 20-win seasons ranked by worst ERA+: http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/Xh2c Compare that list this this one, which is the same one, just from 1978 onward: http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/UtYF So there has been only one 20-win season in the last 30 seasons with a below-average ERA (J Niekro in 1980.) But it was a lot more common in the early part of last century. I must admit that Johnny sort of twisted my post into something that it wasn't. I wasn't trying to identify the flukiest 20-game winners. I picked K/BB ratio because that number tends to be a decent indicator of long-term success for most pitchers and most eras, so the guys with the lowest ratios I guessed would have had the "least impressive" careers, which I think I achieved, at least approximately.

Here is the list of 20-win seasons ranked by worst ERA+:

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/Xh2c

Compare that list this this one, which is the same one, just from 1978 onward:

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/UtYF

So there has been only one 20-win season in the last 30 seasons with a below-average ERA (J Niekro in 1980.) But it was a lot more common in the early part of last century.

]]> By: gerry http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1001/comment-page-1#comment-5877 gerry Thu, 22 Jan 2009 12:04:59 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=1001#comment-5877 K/BB ratio doesn't appeal to me as a way to distinguish better seasons from worse ones. How about a list of the worst 20-win seasons of the last 40 years as determined by ERA+? K/BB ratio doesn't appeal to me as a way to distinguish better seasons from worse ones. How about a list of the worst 20-win seasons of the last 40 years as determined by ERA+?

]]> By: JohnnyTwisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1001/comment-page-1#comment-5868 JohnnyTwisto Wed, 21 Jan 2009 21:18:33 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=1001#comment-5868 Agreed. I was just sort of surprised that the list is as good as it is. I thought there would be more flukey 20-win seasons than there have been. Agreed. I was just sort of surprised that the list is as good as it is. I thought there would be more flukey 20-win seasons than there have been.

]]> By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1001/comment-page-1#comment-5866 Andy Wed, 21 Jan 2009 20:21:48 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=1001#comment-5866 Johnny, I'm not trying to suggest that the guys on the list above were crap, just that they are not a very impressive list of 20-game winners. <a href="http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/2t6Q" rel="nofollow">Here</a> is a list of most 20-win seasons by HOFers. That list has Spahn, Mathewson, Johnson, Alexander, Palmer (who is also in the above list), Grove, Plank, Jenkins, and Lemon as the top 9. I think you'd have to agree that the average career talent on this list of 9 is better by a pretty considerable margin that the list above. Johnny, I'm not trying to suggest that the guys on the list above were crap, just that they are not a very impressive list of 20-game winners. Here is a list of most 20-win seasons by HOFers. That list has Spahn, Mathewson, Johnson, Alexander, Palmer (who is also in the above list), Grove, Plank, Jenkins, and Lemon as the top 9. I think you'd have to agree that the average career talent on this list of 9 is better by a pretty considerable margin that the list above.

]]> By: JohnnyTwisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1001/comment-page-1#comment-5865 JohnnyTwisto Wed, 21 Jan 2009 18:32:21 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=1001#comment-5865 That list doesn't strike as having an inordinate number of flukey 20-game winners. A lot of those pitchers had very good careers, and others were legitimately good for a short period of time. But I won't take your challenge :) I notice that most of those pitchers got a lot of DP turned behind them. Splittorff's 40 is the 7th highest single-season total since 1956. That will help mitigate a few walks. I also just noticed that the worst ERA+ on the list is 102. Not a single below average ERA. That surprises me. I checked and in fact there's only been two 20-game winners with an ERA+ under 100 in the past 40 years. Wins may be overrated but you got to be a good pitcher to get a lot of them. Pitchers don't luck their way to 20 -- especially these days, when almost no one can get to 20 at all. Eventually it would be nice to have a normalized K/BB stat. A 2:1 K/BB ratio used to be very good, now it's average. That list doesn't strike as having an inordinate number of flukey 20-game winners. A lot of those pitchers had very good careers, and others were legitimately good for a short period of time. But I won't take your challenge :)

I notice that most of those pitchers got a lot of DP turned behind them. Splittorff's 40 is the 7th highest single-season total since 1956. That will help mitigate a few walks.

I also just noticed that the worst ERA+ on the list is 102. Not a single below average ERA. That surprises me. I checked and in fact there's only been two 20-game winners with an ERA+ under 100 in the past 40 years. Wins may be overrated but you got to be a good pitcher to get a lot of them. Pitchers don't luck their way to 20 -- especially these days, when almost no one can get to 20 at all.

Eventually it would be nice to have a normalized K/BB stat. A 2:1 K/BB ratio used to be very good, now it's average.

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