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ShareThisWorst K/BB ratios for 20-game winners
Wins & losses are ridiculously overrated stats for starting pitchers. I mean, sure, the pitcher himself has a lot to do with whether he gets a W or a L in a given game. But there are numerous other factors that are largely out of his control, the three biggest ones being offensive run support, quality of the opposing starting pitcher, and the range & performance of his defense.
Anyway, to illustrate my point, here are the "worst" 20-win seasons from the last 40 years, as ranked by lowest K/BB ratio:
Cnt Player **K/BB** W Year Age Tm Lg G GS CG SHO GF L W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+ HR BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Pit Str +----+-----------------+---------+--+----+---+---+--+---+---+--+---+--+--+-----+--+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+--+----+----+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+----+ 1 Mike Torrez 0.89 20 1975 28 BAL AL 36 36 16 2 0 9 .690 0 270.2 238 103 92 133 119 3.06 115 15 1144 994 36 4 5 5 7 5 35 9 12 2 1 10 .239 .331 .329 .660 92 2 Joe Niekro 1.11 21 1979 34 HOU NL 38 38 11 5 0 11 .656 0 263.2 221 102 88 107 119 3.00 117 17 1095 970 26 7 1 7 6 5 27 31 9 1 0 19 .228 .308 .322 .630 83 3 Mel Stottlemyre 1.16 20 1969 27 NYY AL 39 39 24 3 0 14 .588 0 303 267 105 95 97 113 2.82 123 19 1244 1119 36 2 11 6 15 7 39 7 8 0 0 6 .239 .301 .325 .626 84 4 Ed Figueroa 1.19 20 1978 29 NYY AL 35 35 12 2 0 9 .690 0 253 233 96 84 77 92 2.99 121 22 1038 939 44 4 4 3 13 6 21 18 10 6 1 6 .248 .305 .374 .679 92 5 Mike Cuellar 1.23 22 1974 37 BAL AL 38 38 20 5 0 10 .688 0 269.1 253 106 93 86 106 3.11 111 17 1111 1004 33 5 4 2 11 8 31 18 10 5 0 2 .252 .310 .346 .656 91 6 Ron Bryant 1.24 24 1973 25 SFG NL 41 39 8 0 1 12 .667 0 270 240 125 106 115 143 3.53 109 23 1165 1027 34 3 12 9 9 5 13 12 7 2 1 8 .234 .315 .340 .655 84 7 Ross Grimsley 1.25 20 1978 28 MON NL 36 36 19 3 0 11 .645 0 263 237 103 89 67 84 3.05 115 17 1068 975 45 8 6 2 16 8 26 11 7 2 2 4 .243 .291 .358 .649 87 8 Clyde Wright 1.25 22 1970 29 CAL AL 39 39 7 2 0 12 .647 0 260.2 226 97 82 88 110 2.83 127 24 1086 975 27 4 4 7 10 6 19 7 6 1 0 8 .232 .298 .342 .640 85 9 Richard Dotson 1.29 22 1983 24 CHW AL 35 35 8 1 0 7 .759 0 240 209 92 86 106 137 3.23 130 19 997 872 34 3 1 8 4 7 33 29 5 2 0 7 .240 .325 .351 .676 83 10 Tom Glavine 1.33 22 1993 27 ATL NL 36 36 4 2 0 6 .786 0 239.1 236 91 85 90 120 3.20 127 16 1014 910 50 4 7 2 10 2 25 9 5 1 0 4 .259 .327 .376 .703 92 11 Joaquin Andujar 1.37 21 1985 32 STL NL 38 38 10 2 0 12 .636 0 269.2 265 113 102 82 112 3.40 105 15 1127 1019 51 4 12 11 11 4 32 29 9 2 0 2 .260 .321 .362 .683 97 12 Bob Forsch 1.38 20 1977 27 STL NL 35 35 8 2 0 7 .741 0 217.1 210 97 84 69 95 3.48 111 20 915 835 33 2 2 3 4 4 21 15 6 2 1 9 .251 .310 .368 .678 88 13 Tommy John 1.39 22 1980 37 NYY AL 36 36 16 6 0 9 .710 0 265.1 270 115 101 56 78 3.43 114 13 1089 1007 50 12 1 6 15 5 33 2 12 1 0 5 .268 .309 .380 .689 89 14 Jim Palmer 1.40 22 1973 27 BAL AL 38 37 19 6 1 9 .710 1 296.1 225 86 79 113 158 2.40 156 16 1190 1064 36 9 5 3 5 5 23 16 10 0 0 7 .211 .288 .307 .595 69 15 Paul Splittorff 1.41 20 1973 26 KCR AL 38 38 12 3 0 11 .645 0 262 279 135 116 78 110 3.98 102 19 1119 1026 51 6 7 5 5 6 40 11 5 4 1 9 .272 .325 .389 .714 96 16 Jim Palmer 1.42 21 1978 32 BAL AL 38 38 19 6 0 12 .636 0 296 246 94 81 97 138 2.46 143 19 1197 1085 33 6 1 1 10 4 21 18 17 1 1 5 .227 .290 .321 .611 76 17 J.R. Richard 1.42 20 1976 26 HOU NL 39 39 14 3 0 15 .571 0 291 221 105 89 151 214 2.75 116 14 1218 1044 36 2 4 4 13 6 26 34 11 4 2 13 .212 .312 .290 .602 84 18 Claude Osteen 1.45 20 1972 32 LAD NL 33 33 14 4 0 11 .645 0 252 232 82 74 69 100 2.64 127 16 1033 947 34 8 4 4 12 1 22 4 12 4 0 5 .245 .299 .348 .647 91 19 Russ Ortiz 1.46 21 2003 29 ATL NL 34 34 1 1 0 7 .750 0 212.1 177 101 90 102 149 3.81 112 17 912 793 41 3 7 4 6 7 9 22 5 2 0 5 .223 .312 .347 .659 76 3567 2102 20 Steve Stone 1.48 25 1980 32 BAL AL 37 37 9 1 0 7 .781 0 250.2 224 103 90 101 149 3.23 123 22 1048 930 39 5 3 6 6 3 20 18 16 1 0 7 .241 .318 .365 .683 87 21 Andy Messersmith 1.48 20 1971 25 CAL AL 38 38 14 4 0 13 .606 0 276.2 224 112 92 121 179 2.99 108 16 1170 1028 33 6 6 7 9 5 18 26 5 2 0 9 .218 .303 .308 .611 85 22 Vida Blue 1.50 20 1973 23 OAK AL 37 37 13 4 0 9 .690 0 263.2 214 108 96 105 158 3.28 108 26 1083 956 29 6 2 4 8 10 28 14 7 2 2 15 .224 .300 .348 .648 86
While there are a number of good-to-great names on this list, I challenge you to come up with another list of 20-game winners that is less impressive overall in terms of collective career achievements. Even this list, most losses in a 20-win season, isn't as bad.
Strikeouts are an important part of the game and very few starting pitchers with a low strikeout rate (or a high walk rate) experience long-term success in the game.
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This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 21st, 2009 at 8:03 am and is filed under Season Finders. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
January 21st, 2009 at 1:32 pm
That list doesn't strike as having an inordinate number of flukey 20-game winners. A lot of those pitchers had very good careers, and others were legitimately good for a short period of time. But I won't take your challenge
I notice that most of those pitchers got a lot of DP turned behind them. Splittorff's 40 is the 7th highest single-season total since 1956. That will help mitigate a few walks.
I also just noticed that the worst ERA+ on the list is 102. Not a single below average ERA. That surprises me. I checked and in fact there's only been two 20-game winners with an ERA+ under 100 in the past 40 years. Wins may be overrated but you got to be a good pitcher to get a lot of them. Pitchers don't luck their way to 20 -- especially these days, when almost no one can get to 20 at all.
Eventually it would be nice to have a normalized K/BB stat. A 2:1 K/BB ratio used to be very good, now it's average.
January 21st, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Johnny, I'm not trying to suggest that the guys on the list above were crap, just that they are not a very impressive list of 20-game winners. Here is a list of most 20-win seasons by HOFers. That list has Spahn, Mathewson, Johnson, Alexander, Palmer (who is also in the above list), Grove, Plank, Jenkins, and Lemon as the top 9. I think you'd have to agree that the average career talent on this list of 9 is better by a pretty considerable margin that the list above.
January 21st, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Agreed. I was just sort of surprised that the list is as good as it is. I thought there would be more flukey 20-win seasons than there have been.
January 22nd, 2009 at 7:04 am
K/BB ratio doesn't appeal to me as a way to distinguish better seasons from worse ones. How about a list of the worst 20-win seasons of the last 40 years as determined by ERA+?
January 22nd, 2009 at 9:10 am
I must admit that Johnny sort of twisted my post into something that it wasn't. I wasn't trying to identify the flukiest 20-game winners. I picked K/BB ratio because that number tends to be a decent indicator of long-term success for most pitchers and most eras, so the guys with the lowest ratios I guessed would have had the "least impressive" careers, which I think I achieved, at least approximately.
Here is the list of 20-win seasons ranked by worst ERA+:
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/Xh2c
Compare that list this this one, which is the same one, just from 1978 onward:
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/UtYF
So there has been only one 20-win season in the last 30 seasons with a below-average ERA (J Niekro in 1980.) But it was a lot more common in the early part of last century.
January 22nd, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Thanks, Andy. So, compare your list of 22 worst K/BB ratios for a 20-game winner, last 40 years, to the list of 22 worst ERA+ numbers for a 20-game winner, last 40 years:
K/BB: Mike Torrez, Joe Niekro, Mel Stottlemyre, Ed Figueroa, Mike Cuellar, Ron Bryant, Ross Grimsley, Clyde Wright, Richard Dotson, Tom Glavine, Joaquin Andujar, Bob Forsch, Tommy John, Jim Palmer x 2, Paul Splittorff, J R Richard, Claude Osteen, Russ Ortiz, Steve Stone, Andy Messersmith, Vida Blue.
ERA+: Stan Bahnsen, Joe Niekro, Steve Carlton, Paul Splittorff, Jack Morris, Jim Merritt, Joaquin Andujar x 2, Mike Cuellar, Wilbur Wood, John Burkett, Tom Browning, Catfish Hunter, Dennis Leonard, Bill Gullickson, Andy Messersmith, Vida Blue, Rick Helling, Ron Bryant, Bill Singer, Jim Lieber.
Which list is less impressive?
January 23rd, 2009 at 12:15 pm
Both of those lists are great, gerry.
How about this one? First thing I noticed about the original report was the low OPS+ on those guys. Some had ways of countering the high walks or lack of strikeouts. But these guys let runners on AND let runs score (which is not the same thing, as some would suggest). http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/pmCu