B-R Blog & Stat of the Day

Bobby Abreu re-signed with the Angels for 2 years yesterday,which surprised me. He had a nice year for a 35-year-old guy and I thought would have wanted to test the open market. Of course, he did that last year after having a good year and had to wait until just before spring training to get signed. Maybe he was happy to jump at a 2-year contract offer.

Anyway, most people know that he's got a long active streak of 100-RBI seasons. Here are the guys with the most 100-RBI seasons in the last 7 years:

                   From  To   Ages Seasons Link to Individual Seasons
+-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------+
 Alex Rodriguez    2003 2009 27-33       7 Ind. Seasons
 Albert Pujols     2003 2009 23-29       7 Ind. Seasons
 Bobby Abreu       2003 2009 29-35       7 Ind. Seasons
 Mark Teixeira     2004 2009 24-29       6 Ind. Seasons
 Miguel Cabrera    2004 2009 21-26       6 Ind. Seasons
 Carlos Lee        2003 2009 27-33       6 Ind. Seasons

Only Abreu, A-rod, and Phat Albert have 100-RBI seasons each year.

The PI doesn't yet enable us to search for seasonal streaks, although I am hoping that this is coming down the pike. (I can tell you for sure that many significant additions are in fact coming down the pike, as I have seen the beta of the new version...) I don't know how many players have had 7-season 100-RBI streaks, but it's probably been done a fair amount.

Anyway, the last time Abreu didn't have 100 RBI in a season was 2002, but check out his stats that year. He played in 157 games, had 685 plate appearances, batted .308, slugged .521, and had an OPS+ of 151 (a career best.) And yet, he totaled only 85 RBI. Isn't that crazy? If he got 100 RBI that year, he'd have a streak of 9 such seasons going into next year.

Check out the guys over the last 20 seasons to have at least 600 PAs and an OPS+ of 150 or better but not reach 100 RBI:

  Cnt Player            Year OPS+ RBI  PA Age Tm  Lg  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+----+----+---+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+
    1 Joe Mauer         2009  177  96 606  26 MIN AL 138 523  94 191 30  1 28  76  14  63   2   0   5  13   4  1  .365  .444  .587 1.031 *2D
    2 Adrian Gonzalez   2009  163  99 681  27 SDP NL 160 552  90 153 27  2 40 119  22 109   5   1   4  23   1  1  .277  .407  .551  .958 *3/D
    3 Todd Helton       2004  165  96 683  30 COL NL 154 547 115 190 49  2 32 127  19  72   3   0   6  12   3  0  .347  .469  .620 1.089 *3
    4 J.D. Drew         2004  157  93 645  28 ATL NL 145 518 118 158 28  8 31 118   2 116   5   1   3   7  12  3  .305  .436  .569 1.005 *9/8D
    5 Bobby Abreu       2002  151  85 685  28 PHI NL 157 572 102 176 50  6 20 104   9 117   3   0   6  11  31 12  .308  .413  .521  .934 *98
    6 Ryan Klesko       2002  152  95 625  31 SDP NL 146 540  90 162 39  1 29  76  11  86   4   1   4   7   6  2  .300  .388  .537  .925 *39/D
    7 Brian Giles       2001  150  95 674  30 PIT NL 160 576 116 178 37  7 37  90  14  67   4   0   4  10  13  6  .309  .404  .590  .994 *78
    8 Edgar Martinez    1999  152  86 608  36 SEA AL 142 502  86 169 35  1 24  97   6  99   6   0   3  12   7  2  .337  .447  .554 1.001 *D/3
    9 John Olerud       1998  163  93 665  29 NYM NL 160 557  91 197 36  4 22  96  11  73   4   1   7  15   2  2  .354  .447  .551  .998 *3
   10 Mo Vaughn         1997  152  96 628  29 BOS AL 141 527  91 166 24  0 35  86  17 154  12   0   3  10   2  2  .315  .420  .560  .980 *3/D
   11 Barry Larkin      1996  154  89 627  32 CIN NL 152 517 117 154 32  4 33  96   3  52   7   0   7  20  36 10  .298  .410  .567  .977 *6
   12 Bobby Bonilla     1995  151  99 614  32 TOT ML 141 554  96 182 37  8 28  54  10  79   2   0   4  22   0  5  .329  .388  .576  .964 5973
   13 Andy Van Slyke    1992  151  89 685  31 PIT NL 154 614 103 199 45 12 14  58   4  99   4   0   9   9  12  3  .324  .381  .505  .886 *8
   14 John Kruk         1992  150  70 607  31 PHI NL 144 507  86 164 30  4 10  92   8  88   1   0   7  11   3  5  .323  .423  .458  .881 *39/7
   15 Will Clark        1992  150  73 601  28 SFG NL 144 513  69 154 40  1 16  73  23  82   4   0  11   5  12  7  .300  .384  .476  .860 *3
   16 Rafael Palmeiro   1991  155  88 714  26 TEX AL 159 631 115 203 49  3 26  68  10  72   6   2   7  17   4  3  .322  .389  .532  .921 *3/D
   17 George Brett      1990  153  87 607  37 KCR AL 142 544  82 179 45  7 14  56  14  63   0   0   7  18   9  2  .329  .387  .515  .902 *3D/975
   18 Fred McGriff      1990  153  88 658  26 TOR AL 153 557  91 167 21  1 35  94  12 108   2   1   4   7   5  3  .300  .400  .530  .930 *3/D
   19 Eddie Murray      1990  158  95 645  34 LAD NL 155 558  96 184 22  3 26  82  21  64   1   0   4  19   8  5  .330  .414  .520  .934 *3

Most of these guys either had fewer PAs than Abreu's 685 or got a lot closer to 100 RBI.

So why did Abreu fall short of 100 RBI in 2002? The Phillies were an average team that year with a record of 80-81. Abreu batted 3rd almost the entire season except for a stretch where he hit 4th. It would seem that he was in good position to drive in 100 runs.

It seems to me that the key is the guys who were hitting in front of him. Jimmy Rollins hit 1st or 2nd almost the entire year but managed only a .306 OBP, a pathetic value for a leadoff guy and Rollins' worst until this year's abysmal .296 OBP. The guy hitting second was often Doug Glanville, he of the .292 OBP that season.

Check out Abreu's splits for the last 9 seasons batting with runners on base:

Yeah, it looks like Rollins and Glanville not getting on base too much was the difference. In 2002 Abreu had an average number of games with runners on base (145) but the fewest total plate appearances (313). He also had a low total of homers with runners on base (7) despite having an average year in total number of homers (20, not visible in the chart above.) This was a contributing cause to his low RBI total.

In the 8 years above other than 2002, Abreu averaged 93 RBI while hitting with runners on, getting the rest of his RBI each season on solo homers. In 2002, though, he got just 72 RBI with runners on despite having BA, OBP, and SLG just about smack dab on his averages for his entire career in that situation. Had he gotton just his average 93, he would have been over 100 RBI for the year.

Many months ago, back when the Mets were in the conversation as the best team in the National League, I posted a contest created by a reader named BoondockSaint. Prior to the start of the season he posted 40 questions and invited everyone to test their  prognostication skills. Now that the season has ended, I invited BoondockSaint to send me the results and here are the final scores:

1. Whiz - 26 correct
2. BoondockSaint - 25
3. Redsauce - 24
4. JohnnyTwisto - 23
5. Bunnywrangler - 22
6. PCG -21

BoondockSaint also sent me the questions with the final results: Read the rest of this entry »

You've all heard of Bill James' "power/speed number", developed back in the Baseball Abstract era, right? (We have it here on the site, btw.) Well, over at The Hardball Times, Brandon Isleib applied the same technique (taking the harmonic mean of two numbers) to Offensive and Defensive Win Shares to come up with what he calls the "Offense/Defense Number", or a measurement of those who excelled at the plate and afield. In Part I, infielder seasons are examined (spoiler alert: Honus Wagner was awesome).

Wow...what a World Series!

Lots to talk about. Let's start with Andy Pettitte.

From the post-season leaders page, we can see some of Pettitte's all-time post-season rankings.

He's first in wins:

Wins

Those 18 wins came over 249 IP in 40 games and starts. So that's a little over one regular season's worth of starts, and he's managed 18 wins, which is very good. (Remember that in the post-season, you're facing all good teams, so he has no doormats with which to pad his win total. Winning at a rate of 15-16 games for a full-year equivalent is impressive.)

Pettitte is also up there in losses:

Losses

At 18-9, he's won twice as often as he's lost, which again is very good.

Check out the all-time leaders in games pitched:

Games Played

This table summarizes the baseball playoffs nicely. In the Wild Card era, there are so many more games that all the records belong to modern guys, and over that same period, it's been pretty much all Braves, Yankees, and Red Sox.

Pettitte is number 1 in homers allowed:

Home Runs

However, 5 of the top 10 guys above actually allowed homers at a higher rate than Pettitte (including, obviously, Jaret Wright--wow!) Catfish Hunter sticks out as the only holdover from prior to the Wild Card era.

Anyway, the bottom line is that Pettitte has been very impressive. He's pitched in 8 World Series (including with Houston in 2005.) True, he's been lucky to be on such good teams, but A) he had a lot to do with them being so good and B) regardless of how he got the opportunities, he has done well with them.

It's interesting to debate his Hall of Fame credentials. His position as a top pitcher on 8 World Series teams goes a long way, in my opinion. He's got the 63rd-highest win total of all time, but only the 229th-highest loss total (translation: he's got a great winning percentage.) He has two 20-win seasons (actually 21 both times) and finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting in 5 different seasons.

The marks against him are primarily these:

• He has only 229 career wins (as mentioned, 63rd all time) which would be a very low total for a Hall of Famer.
• His excellent W-L record seems to be at least partially a product of playing on such good teams. He came to the Yankees in 1995 when they made the playoffs for the first time in a long time and has never pitched for a poor team. His ERA+ is only 116 which, while very respectable, is not excellent. His neutralized pitching totals tell the story. They say his record should be (gulp) 162-146, a whopping 67 wins fewer than he has. This means that if he hadn't been on the Yankees, he'd be much closer to a .500 pitcher in all likelihood. This would give him numbers more like Tim Wakefield, Livan Hernandez, or Kevin Millwood. These are all good pitchers but clearly not HOFers.

What do you think?

I'm getting geared up for tonight's game and was curious to see who the oldest Game 6 starters are in World Series history:

  Cnt AgeY.D                   Date          Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt App,Dec    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GmSc IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP   ERA
+----+------+-----------------+-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+--+--+------+
    1 40.167 Dennis Martinez   1995-10-28    WS     6 CLE @ATL L  0-1  GS-5       4.2  4  0  0  5  2  0  82  44   53       21 16  1  0   1   0  0  0   1  0  1  0  0  0   0.00
    2 39.275 Early Wynn        1959-10-08    WS     6 CHW  LAD L  3-9  GS-4  ,L   3.1  5  5  5  3  2  1           29       18 14  1  0   0   0  1  0   0  0  0  0  0  0  13.50
    3 39.225 Pete Alexander    1926-10-09    WS     6 STL @NYY W 10-2  CG 9  ,W   9    8  2  2  2  6  0           67       38 36  2  1   0   0  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0   2.00
    4 38.159 Tommy John        1981-10-28    WS     6 NYY  LAD L  2-9  GS-4       4    6  1  1  0  2  0  48  33   48       18 18  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  1  0  0  0   2.25
    5 38.054 Randy Johnson     2001-11-03    WS     6 ARI  NYY W 15-2  GS-7  ,W   7    6  2  2  2  7  0 104  66   62       29 27  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   2.57
    6 37.200 Don Sutton        1982-10-19    WS     6 MIL @STL L  1-13 GS-5  ,L   4.1  7  7  5  0  2  2  67  45   27       21 20  2  1   0   0  1  0   0  1  1  0  1  0  10.38
    7 37.168 Warren Spahn      1958-10-08    WS     6 MLN  NYY L  3-4  GS-10 ,L   9.2  9  4  4  2  5  2           58       42 39  0  0   0   0  0  1   0  0  1  0  0  0   3.72
    8 36.246 Dave Stewart      1993-10-23    WS     6 TOR  PHI W  8-6  GS-6       6    4  4  4  4  2  1 120  68   46       28 24  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   6.00
    9 36.182 Claude Passeau    1945-10-08    WS     6 CHC  DET W  8-7  GS-7       6.2  5  3  3  6  2  0           48       32 26  1  0   2   0  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0   4.05
   10 35.309 Bob Shawkey       1926-10-09    WS     6 NYY  STL L  2-10 GS-7  ,L   6.1  8  7  6  2  4  0           33       29 24  3  0   0   0  3  0   0  0  1  0  0  0   8.53

After tonight, Pedro Martinez is going to be #6 on this list and Andy Pettitte will be the new #8, slotting between Spahn and Stewart (who slide down one spot after Pedro goes in at #6.)

Among the top 10 games above, we don't see a lot of great performances. Only 3 of the starters went at least 7 innings and half the guys gave up at least 4 ER. The starters earned a cumulative 2-4 record and the teams went 4-6 in the 10 games. We know that after tonight, the top 10 record will still be 4-6, as the current #9 and #10 are 1 win and 1 loss, and the same game will slot on the new list with a win for one team and a loss for the other.

While I'm still captivated by the World Series that's going on, anybody who isn't is already thinking about this year's crop of free agents.

(As an aside, how could you not be captivated by tonight's game? One of two things is likely: the Yankees might beat Pedro to win the World Series or Pedro might beat the Yankees to push the series to a seventh and final game...how could you NOT tune in?)

Anyway, it's a pretty thin class for this year's free agents. We'll get into it more during the off-season, but I caught wind of an interesting fact pointed out by an agent. Can you name the only 3 players to have 4 seasons with 30+ HR, 100+ RBI and 100+ runs over the period 2005-2009?

I'll spot you the first two--Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. Can you name the third? Answer is below...

Read the rest of this entry »

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It was noted by an Arkansan on SABR-L that Lee and Burnett were both from Arkansas and were born within a year of each other, Burnett from North Little Rock and Lee from Benton. This was the 38th time that the two WS starters from the same state in the Union. The most recent was Kevin Appier and Russ Ortiz, both from California, faced each other twice in the 2002 World Series.

Surprisingly, at least to me, no foreign country has boasted two native sons starting in a World Series game.

Full List after the jump

Here is the full list.
Read the rest of this entry »

Chase Utley did it again last night, hitting two homers in a World Series game.

Check out the most recent multi-homer games in the playoffs:

  Cnt Player            Date          Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt PA AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BOr Positions
+----+-----------------+-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+--+---+--+---+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+---------+
    1 Chase Utley       2009-11-02    WS     5 PHI  NYY W  8-6   4  3  3  2  0  0  2   4  1   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  1  0 3rd 2B
    2 Jayson Werth      2009-10-31    WS     3 PHI  NYY L  5-8   4  4  2  2  0  0  2   2  0   0  1   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 5th RF
    3 Chase Utley       2009-10-28    WS     1 PHI @NYY W  6-1   5  4  2  2  0  0  2   2  1   0  1   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 3rd 2B
    4 Jayson Werth      2009-10-21    NLCS   5 PHI  LAD W 10-4   4  4  3  3  0  0  2   4  0   0  1   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 5th RF

    5 Ryan Howard       2008-10-26    WS     4 PHI  TBR W 10-2   5  4  2  3  0  0  2   5  1   1  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 4th 1B
    6 Dustin Pedroia    2008-10-11    ALCS   2 BOS @TBR L  8-9   6  5  4  3  0  0  2   2  1   0  1   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 2nd 2B
    7 B.J. Upton        2008-10-06    ALDS   4 TBR @CHW W  6-2   5  4  2  2  0  0  2   2  1   1  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 2nd CF
    8 Pat Burrell       2008-10-05    NLDS   4 PHI @MIL W  6-2   4  4  2  3  0  0  2   4  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 5th LF
    9 Mike Napoli       2008-10-05    ALDS   3 LAA @BOS W  5-4   6  5  3  3  0  0  2   3  0   0  0   1  0  0   0   0  0  0 7th C
   10 Evan Longoria     2008-10-02    ALDS   1 TBR  CHW W  6-4   4  3  2  3  0  0  2   3  1   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  1  0 4th 3B

   11 Carlos Beltran    2006-10-15    NLCS   4 NYM @STL W 12-5   5  3  4  3  0  0  2   2  2   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 3rd CF
   12 Magglio Ordonez   2006-10-14    ALCS   4 DET  OAK W  6-3   5  4  2  2  0  0  2   4  1   0  1   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 4th RF
   13 Carlos Delgado    2006-10-13    NLCS   2 NYM  STL L  6-9   5  5  2  2  0  0  2   4  0   0  1   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 4th 1B
   14 Milton Bradley    2006-10-11    ALCS   2 OAK  DET L  5-8   5  5  2  4  0  0  2   4  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 3rd RF
   15 Frank Thomas      2006-10-03    ALDS   1 OAK @MIN W  3-2   4  4  2  3  0  0  2   2  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 4th DH

   16 Manny Ramirez     2005-10-07    ALDS   3 BOS  CHW L  3-5   4  3  2  2  0  0  2   2  1   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 4th LF
   17 A.J. Pierzynski   2005-10-04    ALDS   1 CHW  BOS W 14-2   4  3  4  3  1  0  2   4  0   0  0   1  0  0   0   0  0  0 7th C

   18 Johnny Damon      2004-10-20    ALCS   7 BOS @NYY W 10-3   6  6  2  3  0  0  2   6  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   1  1  0 1st CF
   19 Hideki Matsui     2004-10-16    ALCS   3 NYY @BOS W 19-8   6  6  5  5  2  0  2   5  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 4th LF
   20 Scott Rolen       2004-10-14    NLCS   2 STL  HOU W  6-4   4  4  2  2  0  0  2   3  0   0  1   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 4th 3B
   21 Carlos Beltran    2004-10-11    NLDS   5 HOU @ATL W 12-3   5  5  3  4  0  0  2   5  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 2nd CF
   22 Shawn Green       2004-10-09    NLDS   3 LAD  STL W  4-0   4  4  2  3  0  0  2   2  0   0  0   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 5th 1B
   23 Larry Walker      2004-10-05    NLDS   1 STL  LAD W  8-3   4  4  2  2  0  0  2   2  0   0  2   0  0  0   0   0  0  0 2nd RF

Players for the Phillies have the last 5 such games, which is pretty amazing. They're players have done it a total of 6 times in the last 2 seasons. (Keep in mind I'm talking about a single player having at least 2 homers in a game, not the team hitting at least 2 homers, which of course happens quite frequently.)

This year, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth have joined this pretty exclusive club of players with at least 2 multi-homer playoff games.

                   Games Link to Individual Games
+-----------------+-----+-------------------------+
 Babe Ruth             4 Ind. Games
 Manny Ramirez         3 Ind. Games
 Bernie Williams       2 Ind. Games
 Jayson Werth          2 Ind. Games
 Chase Utley           2 Ind. Games
 Jim Thome             2 Ind. Games
 Duke Snider           2 Ind. Games
 Mickey Mantle         2 Ind. Games
 Jeff Kent             2 Ind. Games
 Eric Karros           2 Ind. Games
 Chipper Jones         2 Ind. Games
 Reggie Jackson        2 Ind. Games
 Troy Glaus            2 Ind. Games
 Lou Gehrig            2 Ind. Games
 Steve Garvey          2 Ind. Games
 George Brett          2 Ind. Games
 Carlos Beltran        2 Ind. Games
 Willie Aikens         2 Ind. Games

Those two guys are half of the total group to have at least 2 multi-homer playoff games in the same post-season:

                   Year Games Link to Individual Games
+-----------------+----+-----+-------------------------+
 Jayson Werth      2009     2 Ind. Games
 Chase Utley       2009     2 Ind. Games
 Troy Glaus        2002     2 Ind. Games
 Willie Aikens     1980     2 Ind. Games

Finally, here's a nice piece of playoff trivia. Can you recall the last guy to hit THREE homers in a single playoff game? I couldn't. It's been done a total of six times in history (by five different players)...how many of those guys can you name? The full list is after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »